Zuma’s days ‘could be numbered’ if ANC wins less than 60% of vote

IF THE ruling African National Congress (ANC) garners less than 60% of the vote in the May 7 elections, then President Jacob Zuma’s days could be numbered, says independent political analyst Daniel Silke.

If the ANC loses substantial support because of the Nkandla issue, the party will look to replace Mr Zuma, at least midway during the next term.

Mr Silke said the big question was who would replace Mr Zuma. He said if the ANC dropped below 60% it would leave the party extremely vulnerable for the 2016 local government elections and the 2019 national and provincial election, which means they would have to work much harder to return to power. This may mean that the ANC would have to co-operate with other centrist parties such as the DA.

“If the ANC manages to capture 62%-63% of the vote, Mr Zuma may survive, but not much lower,” Mr Silke said in his latest presentation on Sunday night to a small audience at the Claremont Synagogue.

Mr Silke is a former Democratic Alliance (DA) member and Cape Town ward councillor who now makes regular presentations to local and international companies about the South African political landscape and has just updated his analysis on the upcoming national and provincial elections.