China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation released 2019 National Risk Analysis Report (hereafter refer to as “report”) on October 11th in Beijing. It also launched a panorama global risk map and tellurian that can visualized the risk level of different countries.
National Risks Show an Upward Trend Around The World
The national risk level of the 181 countries assessed in this report remains the stable. The risk levels of Japan, Egypt, and Nigeria have decreased (grade increased) while those of Iran, Yemen, Sudan and other eight countries increased (grade decreased). when it come to the risk of bankruptcy, the oil, natural gas, mining and other industry have a lower risk of going bankrupt. However, under the impacts of new technologies like the internet, the retail industry is facing a growing risk go bankrupt. It is expected that with a lower economic recovery in 2019, companies are increasingly likely to face bankruptcy.
Five Features of Future Global Risk Landscape
First geopolitical risk will see a upward trend due to the intensification of competition and conflicts in between major countries and regions. Second, the impacts of slagging economic growth will be felt by primary product exporters through commodity prices. The global economic growth will slow in the future. Third, with a complex and ever-changing global business environment, the room for a better operational environment is limited. Fourth, the risk national debt especially that of some Latin American and African countries remains high. National debt is skill likely to trigger currency crisis, financial crisis, and social instability. Fifth, the gap between the risk levels of different industries will continue to widen, and industries will become further segmented due to geopolitical risks, uncertain economic policies and trade policies.
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