- Indonesia is considering withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, arguing it is unfair for developing nations to comply when a major polluter like the U.S. has pulled out, again.
- Officials highlight Indonesia’s lower per capita emissions and stress the need for more financial aid to transition away from coal.
- Environmental groups warn that exiting the agreement could harm Indonesia’s economy, global reputation, and ability to secure climate funding.
- While Indonesia signed a $20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) deal in 2022, slow fund disbursement has fueled frustration, and coal remains central to its energy strategy.
JAKARTA — Indonesia, one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters, has signaled it might follow in the footsteps of the U.S. and withdraw from the Paris climate agreement.
“If the United State [the second-biggest emitter after China] does not want to comply with the international agreement, why should a country like Indonesia comply with it?” Hashim Djojohadikusumo, Indonesia’s special envoy for climate change and energy, said at a sustainability forum in Jakarta on Jan. 31.
He pointed to the stark disparity in per capita carbon emissions, with the U.S. emitting approximately 13 metric tons of carbon per person annually, while the average Indonesian emits about 3 metric tons.
“[Y]et we are the ones being told to close our power plants and reduce our [coal-fired] power plants. So, where is the sense of justice here?” said Hashim, who is also the younger brother of President Prabowo Subianto.
The remarks from the country’s climate envoy have triggered strong backlash from environmental groups, who call the stance legally irresponsible, economically short-sighted, and environmentally disastrous.
While Indonesia hasn’t officially stated any plans to withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement, a growing number of top officials have questioned the fairness of Indonesia’s commitment to reducing emissions when a major polluter like the U.S. has opted out. Bahlil Lahadalia, the minister of energy and mines, said the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement could lead to a decrease in financial support for renewable energy projects. That will make it difficult for Indonesia to remain committed to its clean energy transition, he said.
Developing countries like Indonesia have long called for financial assistance from wealthier nations to address climate change, as they lack the resources to do so despite suffering the most from its effects.
“Why are we being forced to retire coal-fired power plants? Who’s going to fund [these early retirements]?” Bahlil said as quoted by local media. “There are no donor organizations that have funded [early coal retirement]. Zero.”
In 2022, Indonesia signed a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) deal with the U.S. and other wealthy nations, which will see the latter disburse $20 billion to help the country transition away from fossil fuels, particularly coal. However, the government has expressed frustration over the slow disbursement of funds.
Bahlil said this makes the question of Indonesia staying with the Paris Agreement “a dilemma,” and suggested the government would reconsider its stance on the accord.
“The Paris Agreement was a global consensus that we were forced to go along with,” he said. “We must not get trapped.”
He added that given the U.S.’s withdrawal, Indonesia would prioritize meeting its energy demand independently with a blend of coal and renewables, rather than shifting entirely to the latter.
“President Prabowo ordered me to achieve energy sovereignty, not replace all our energy with renewable energy,” Bahlil said.
This contradicts Prabowo’s pledge at the G20 summit in Brazil last November, where he announced plans to “retire all coal and other fossil fuel-powered plants while drastically boosting the country’s renewable energy capacity in the next 15 years.”
Indonesia generates 66% of its electricity from coal and continues to build new coal-fired power plants, particularly so-called captive plants — off-grid facilities that power industrial users such as energy-hungry nickel smelters.
The early retirement of coal plants is a key part of Prabowo’s stated goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, a decade sooner than the country’s previous target of 2060.
However, Hashim denied that Prabowo ever intended a complete coal phase-out, instead calling it a “phase-down” to reduce coal reliance while keeping some plants operational. Indonesia still plans to build new coal-fired power plants, with a moratorium on new projects taking effect only from 2040 onward, Hashim said.
“We don’t want to commit economic suicide,” he said. “If we shutter [coal-fired] plants, our economy will collapse.”
U.S. pulls out (again)
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, aims to limit global temperature rise to below 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. However, the world is increasingly off track to meet this goal, with last year being the hottest on record, and extreme weather events, such as the recent Los Angeles wildfires, growing increasingly frequent and intense.
Indonesia is already feeling the impacts of climate change, with 6,827 climate-related disasters recorded in 2023-2024, affecting more than 13 million people, according to official data. Last October, Indonesia reached a record daily temperature of 38.4°C (101.1°F).
These extreme weather events are expected to worsen if the 1.5°C threshold is exceeded, scientists warn.
Despite this, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to withdraw the country from the Paris Agreement for the second time, having previously done so in 2019, during his first term. (The U.S. later rejoined under Joe Biden in 2021.)
While no other countries have followed the U.S. pullout, either in 2019 or now, more countries are indicating this time around that they’re considering doing so. Besides Indonesia, Argentina is also discussing a potential withdrawal, with the country’s climate policy weakened under President Javier Milei, who has dismissed climate change as a “socialist hoax.”
Giorgio B. Indrarto, deputy director of Indonesian sustainability NGO Madani Berkelanjutan, said Indonesia’s leadership appears detached from the urgency of the climate crisis.
“These statements [by Hashim and Bahlil] show a lack of understanding and ignorance from the government on the urgency of the climate crisis, and their reluctance to prioritize climate justice agenda,” he said.
Novita Indri, a fossil energy campaigner at the NGO Trend Asia, said Indonesian officials should see Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement as the anti-science move that it is, one that’s been widely condemned by the international community.
Activists say Indonesia is legally and morally obligated to curb emissions to protect its citizens’ right to a clean and healthy environment.
“Building energy security while letting people bear the negative impacts of coal burning is the same as actively violating their rights,” said Syaharani from the Indonesian Center for Environmental Law (ICEL).
Indonesia is also morally obligated to curb its emissions and transition away from fossil fuels, activists say, given that it’s not just a major polluter through coal burning, but also an exporter of emissions as the world’s top coal exporter. In 2023, the country’s coal production and exports reached record highs, with China and India its two biggest export markets. Those countries are also two of the largest emitters in the world.
Indonesia’s coal industry and its powerful lobbying appear to be heavily influencing the government’s stance on the Paris Agreement, said Sisilia Nurmala Dewi, the Indonesia team lead for climate nonprofit 350.org. Several top officials also have coal business interests, including Bahlil, whose web of companies include coal mines.
“[The government’s stance] reflects a reluctance to acknowledge the inevitable decline of fossil fuels and the environmental impact of deforestation,” Sisilia said.
Reputational damage
Sisilia warned of economic consequences if Indonesia exits the Paris Agreement and fails to address climate change, with the government itself estimating that the country could lose 40% of its GDP by 2050 due to climate impacts.
Other economic consequences might include the loss of international climate funding and damage to Indonesia’s global reputation, said Indira Hapsari from the NGO Yappika.
Access to climate finance is crucial, as Indonesia requires an estimated $2.4 trillion from 2022-2060, or $62 billion per year, to transition to renewable energy and meet its net-zero emissions goal, according to an analysis by U.S. consultancy Kearney.
Most of that sum, $1.4 trillion, would go to developing renewable energy capacity until all of the country’s energy comes from renewable sources in 2060. In 2022, renewable accounted for just 18.2% of the country’s energy mix.
That’s why it’s important for the Indonesian government to attract investors in green sectors, such as renewable energy, said Shirley Santoso, director of Kearney Indonesia.
“It was a strong signal when Prabowo mentioned [climate commitments] at the G20, because you have all the international investors [there],” she said. “It’s very important for the government to continue to show political will.”
That’s why Indonesia risks undermining its climate credibility if it backtracks now, activists say.
Novita from Trend Asia urged the government to strengthen, rather than abandon, its climate commitments.
“Instead of engaging in a race to the bottom, this should push us to enhance our mitigation and adaptation efforts because we are highly vulnerable to climate crises,” she said.
One way to strengthen Indonesia’s mitigation efforts is by redirecting public money spent on fossil fuel subsidies toward renewable energy, said Norly Mercado, Asia regional director for 350.org. This way, Indonesia could fill in the financial gap left by the U.S., she said.
“With its massive sun and wind energy potential and the increasing affordability of renewable energy technologies, Indonesia can achieve energy independence: but only if it rejects the path of fossil fuels, which is no longer a viable nor acceptable option, no matter who the sitting U.S. president is,” Mercado said.
Indonesia should also see the absence of U.S. leadership on climate issues as an opportunity, rather than the dilemma described by Bahlil, to step up its own climate leadership and pressure Western nations to make good on their obligations to finance a just energy transition, she said.
Another thing Indonesia could do is explore fair cooperation frameworks with other nations, including fellow developing countries, to achieve Paris Agreement targets, Novita said.
“The Paris Agreement should not just be seen as a piece of paper filled with technical language about reducing emissions,” she said. “It is a commitment to protecting humanity. The climate crisis is already happening, and its impacts are in front of us. Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement is an act of injustice against humanity.”
Banner image: Captive coal power plant behind a school on Obi Island. Image courtesy of Esa Setiawan/Trend Asia.
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