Brazil is speeding-up forest fire prevention to avoid dangerous tipping points in the Amazon (commentary)

Brazil is facing an alarming surge in forest fires. Last year, the country registered 237,000 fires and over 30.8 million hectares of vegetation were consumed by flames—an area the size of Italy. This represented a 79% increase in areas burned compared to 2023. The Amazon rainforest bore the brunt, accounting for 58% of the total burned area. The threat of more fires during the 2025 fire season prompted the Brazilian government to declare a nationwide environmental emergency. Early this year, the Supreme Court ordered the federal government and all Amazon and Pantanal states to draw-up emergency fire management plans.

The future risks of forest fires in Brazil over the coming decade are disconcerting. Rising global temperatures and shifting climate patterns are expected to intensify droughts, creating even more flammable conditions across the Amazon, Pantanal, and Atlantic Forest. Both the El Niño and La Niña climate cycles are also expected to become more frequent and severe. Without significant reductions in deforestation and carbon emissions, parts of the Amazon will likely tip in the coming decades, transitioning into a savanna-like ecosystem. 

Brazilian forest fires are overwhelmingly man-made. Some of the underlying drivers include deforestation, degradation, land grabbing, and land clearing for agriculture and cattle ranching, all of which involve the deliberate use of fire, a practice that frequently spirals out of control. Illegal logging and mining exacerbate the problem, with fires set to cover up deforestation or create access routes for unauthorized extractive activities. Meanwhile, climate change and extreme weather conditions have intensified, making rainforests drier and more flammable than ever.

The consequences of these fires extend far beyond the immediate environmental destruction. The health impacts are severe, with prolonged exposure to wildfire smoke linked to respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular disease, and premature deaths, particularly among children and the elderly. In Brazil’s Legal Amazon, hospitals have reported increasing cases of asthma, bronchitis, and pneumonia due to rising air pollution. Fires also disrupt agricultural production, supply chains, and tourism, leading to billions in losses annually. What’s more, the destruction of indigenous lands and traditional livelihoods deepens social inequalities, forcing communities to migrate and heightening tensions over land use.

Brazilian authorities have taken steps to slow the spread of forest fires, albeit with mixed results. On the one hand, the government has reinforced zero deforestation policies through initiatives such as supporting firefighters and financing fire-fighting equipment via the Amazon Fund and Operation “Guardiões do Bioma“, which focus on combating illegal deforestation and environmental crimes. Amazonian states like Pará have introduced tax benefits for landowners who preserve forest cover, discouraging slash-and-burn agriculture. And restoration concession projects of public lands are beginning to explicitly incorporate fire risk as a key consideration.

Another promising initiative recently announced by the Ministry of Environment is the establishment of “governance offices” in 70 Amazon municipalities to curb deforestation and forest fires. Supported by the Brazilian Biodiversity Fund (FUNBIO) and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and linked to the Union with Municipalities (UcM) program, the initiative expects to provide vehicles, boats, drones and training to support fire prevention and reduction efforts. Starting in 2025, the offices will also serve as hubs to coordinate assistance for oversight, land regulation, and payments for environmental services.   

Brazil is also investing heavily in new technologies to prevent and manage fires. A positive example is the Prevfogo Program, managed by the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA), which integrates satellite-based fire detection with artificial intelligence to predict and monitor fire outbreaks (Amazon Fund). AI-powered platforms like PrevisIA, developed by Imazon in partnership with Microsoft, track climate conditions, wind patterns, and land use changes to forecast high-risk areas. Meanwhile, autonomous firefighting drones are being tested in Acre and Rondônia to detect and extinguish early-stage fires. There are also emerging bioengineering solutions, such as research into fire-resistant tree species and soil treatments, designed to reduce fire spread in vulnerable regions.

New technologies can empower government, the private sector, civil society organizations and local communities to scale-up fire prevention and firefighting efforts. Take the case of the 64 indigenous fire brigades (BRIFs-1) supported by IBAMA’s Prevfogo who are training indigenous communities in fire prevention and controlled burning techniques, blending traditional knowledge with modern methods. Additionally, mobile apps like SELVA are helping and the recently announced Monitech system supported by Instituto Alok can help citizens to report fire outbreaks in real-time, enabling quicker response from authorities.What is more, agroforestry systems that integrate fire-resistant plant species and controlled burning techniques can help farmers transition away from slash-and-burn agriculture to more sustainable land-use practices.

Addressing Brazil’s monumental forest fire crisis requires a multifaceted approach. Technology is key, but so are enhanced communication and outreach and a deeper understanding of the political economy of wildfires, including the role of organized crime and supply chain risks. Governments need timely and specific insights into the specific determinants of forest fires to help governments, companies and civil societies consider appropriate de-risking strategies. And in the longer run, nature-based solutions, especially land restoration and conservation projects that account for fire risks, are critical for fostering resilient forest protection.

Innovative financing from public, private and philanthropic sectors is critical to scale-up these kinds of measures. Tools such as green bonds, climate funds, and performance-based incentives can help incentivize and mobilize public and private sector resources to fund fire prevention innovation and forest restoration efforts. These are not challenges that Brazil and other Amazonian countries should have to face alone. Given the transboundary nature of forest fires, regional cooperation is crucial—witness the impacts of Bolivian fires on Brazil’s Pantanal in 2024. 

With forest fires set to grow in the coming years, Brazil and its partners need a comprehensive strategy and not piecemeal approaches. This requires a combination of smart public policy, sustained monitoring and enforcement, economic incentives, technological innovation, sustainable land management and the involvement of traditional and local communities. It also needs to be backed by powerful multi stakeholder coalitions. There are several promising ventures that could help inspire action. Examples include the Wildfire Resilience Initiative and the Fire Grand Challenge, which are focused on Western North America. The challenges facing the Amazon and other biomes are enormous, but so are the opportunities to transform the crisis into sustainable action.

Header image: Fire in an area newly deforested in Brazil. Image © Christian Braga / Greenpeace.

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Rhett Butler Editor

This story first appeared on Mongabay

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