MPUMALANGA, South Africa — The future of policing in South Africa faces a critical crossroads as new resolutions adopted during the Minister and Members of the Executive Council for Police meeting in Mpumalanga aim to reset law enforcement. However, Chad Thomas from IRS Forensic Investigators warns that without addressing severe leadership deficits, intelligence failures, and massive attrition within the South African Police Service (SAPS), these interventions risk becoming short-term political fixes rather than sustained solutions.
The newly adopted resolutions earmark 140 high-crime precincts for priority intervention, identified in consultation with provincial MECs. While Thomas acknowledges that these stations statistically require intervention, he questions the quality of SAPS crime data and whether these locations were chosen merely for political visibility. He points to “Operation Prosper,” where the Special Task Force (SEDF) was brought in to support SAPS projects, notably on the Cape Flats. Despite the intervention, there has been little measurable impact on the weekly murder rates in the area.
Acting Minister of Police Firoz Cachalia described these targeted sites as intended “demonstration areas.” Thomas cautions that such pilot interventions rarely produce sustained crime reductions. Historically, criminals simply relocate when resources surge, only to return when the spotlight and additional resourcing shift elsewhere. He emphasizes that effective counter-strategies require an intelligence-based approach, which is currently hampered because SAPS intelligence structures are in an “absolute shambles.”
A major hurdle to long-term success is the continued deficit in SAPS leadership. Thomas highlights the instability of operating with an acting minister alongside a suspended minister, an acting national commissioner alongside a suspended national commissioner, and four provinces lacking permanent provincial commissioners. This instability makes medium- to long-term planning over the next 5 to 10 years nearly impossible.
Despite a resolution to introduce 5,500 new constables, Thomas reveals that overall police numbers have dropped from an all-time high of nearly 200,000 to approximately 170,000. Operational members have fallen from 150,000 to between 130,000 and 140,000 in a country of over 65 million people with one of the world’s highest crime rates. This attrition has heavily impacted detectives, as members are encouraged to take early retirement at age 55 to help lower national unemployment. While this policy brings in new blood, it sacrifices vital veteran expertise, established prosecution networks, and critical investigative capacity.
Consequently, the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) is not enrolling the majority of criminal investigations. Remaining detectives are either inadequately trained, lack experience, or carry excessively high docket loads, leading to incomplete or poorly investigated cases from the outset.
Shifting focus to the Investigating Directorate Against Corruption (IDAC), which has recently been in the spotlight at the Madlanga Commission alongside the newly established Ombud’s office, Thomas stresses the institution’s importance. Originally established to investigate state capture plunder and recover funds following the multi-billion-rand Zondo Commission, the IDC’s mandate has since expanded. However, Thomas warns of a systemic issue across all law enforcement units: “fishing from the same pond.”
He notes a problematic pattern of rotating the same individuals from the Scorpions, crime intelligence, the Hawks, and the NPA into IDC roles. Citing figures like Matthews Sesoko (who came from IPID) and Brian Pariachi (along with others from crime intelligence or the Hawks), Thomas argues this recycling of personnel creates confirmation bias and institutional complacency. Instead of repeatedly disbanding units, as was seen with the Scorpions, he advocates for training and deploying fresh, eager graduates to bring new eyes to state ranks.
To resolve this, Thomas echoes previous sentiments by Cachalia, who, during his tenure as chairperson of the anti-corruption commission, proposed establishing a Chapter 9 organization. This “super unit” would consolidate anti-corruption efforts, eliminating the factionalism and jurisdictional overlap of multiple departments attempting to do the same work.
Addressing internal IDC dynamics, Thomas commented on Advocate Andrea Johnson returning to the commission despite a formal complaint lodged against her by Brigadier Dineo Mokwele. Regarding the case against Kumalo and Mokwele, Thomas asserted it “hasn’t got any legs to stand on.” He noted that the head of the IDC admitted to not reading certain dockets and delegating the test case to other members, which severely damages the institution’s image.
Thomas concluded that while the IDC remains an essential component of the justice system, the executive must urgently implement leadership changes within the directorate until a comprehensive, national Chapter 9 anti-corruption task team is fully established.
