The Democratic Alliance’s narrow by-election victory in Emfuleni Ward 28 has intensified discussion around evolving voter behaviour ahead of South Africa’s upcoming local government elections, after the party wrested the former ANC stronghold with 32.36% of the vote—a significant increase from 14% in 2021 and 19% in the 2024 national elections.
The win, secured by a margin of just eight votes, was hailed by the DA as evidence that South Africans are “choosing change and governments that work.” However, election analyst Thembelani Mazibuko cautioned stakeholders against drawing sweeping conclusions from a single ward result.
“By-elections are one data point in a relatively small part of the province,” Mazibuko stated. “We can make more meaningful conclusions when we have perhaps a string of by-elections in and around the area. But so far, so good for the Democratic Alliance.”
According to Mazibuko, the results reflect targeted resource allocation by the DA in key municipalities including Emfuleni, Midvaal, Mogale City, and Ekurhuleni, even as major metros like Johannesburg and Tshwane dominate national political attention. The analyst noted that while the ANC and EFF both saw decreases in their vote shares in Ward 28, the DA’s growth suggests strategic groundwork for the broader local government contests.
Other parties also registered notable performances. The Patriotic Alliance made inroads in the ward, continuing a pattern of growth observed in select wards across the Western Cape, Northern Cape, and Eastern Cape. The South African Communist Party, contesting the area, garnered approximately 3% of the vote. Mazibuko contextualised this result, noting that while 3% could be a meaningful national showing in a full local government election, by-elections enable smaller parties to concentrate national resources and activist networks on a single ward, potentially inflating localized performance.
“The SACP is able to steward resources towards this by-election… so they can bring resources from other regions into this particular part of the country,” Mazibuko explained. “I wouldn’t want to draw too much conclusion with regards to the result of the South African Communist Party. Subsequent by-election results may be able to give us a deeper story.”
The absence of the MK Party from the Ward 28 ballot also drew analytical attention. Mazibuko highlighted that local government elections demand extensive grassroots machinery and geographic reach—a distinct challenge compared to national contests. While the MK Party did not field a candidate in Emfuleni, the analyst noted the party has achieved by-election successes outside its KwaZulu-Natal stronghold, including wins in the North West Province and Western Cape.
“Smaller parties by nature are going to have a challenge: newer, they have less resources, they don’t have the kind of branches that bigger parties may have,” Mazibuko said. “They would definitely have to focus and steward their resources.” The analyst added that even established parties like the IFP remain regionally concentrated, underscoring the strategic targeting required for effective local election campaigns.
Mazibuko concluded that greater clarity on national voting trends will emerge after the scheduled local government elections on 2 November, when the full electorate casts ballots across all municipalities. Until then, individual by-election results should be viewed as indicative rather than definitive signals of shifting political allegiances.
