PRETORIA, GAUTENG — As South Africa prepares for the 2026 local government elections on 4 November, a major political shift is underway with the National Education, Health and Allied Workers’ Union (NEHAWU) officially endorsing the South African Communist Party (SACP). Political analysts predict this historic move will trigger a domino effect, leading more Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) affiliates to support the Communist Party and significantly altering the electoral landscape for the governing party.
NEHAWU solidified its decision to back the SACP during its recent 13th National Congress. The resolution marks a massive fracture in the labor movement’s traditional voting stance and signals a growing effort by public sector unions to build an independent working-class socialist movement. Furthermore, the union has stated its intention to persuade the rest of Cosatu to follow suit in the upcoming elections.
A Predicted Domino Effect Within Cosatu
Political analyst Professor Zamokuhle Mbandlwa notes that NEHAWU’s decision was not unexpected and anticipates that several other unions within the tripartite alliance will soon join in supporting the SACP.
According to Mbandlwa, the union is raising valid points regarding the difficulties they have faced in advancing the interests of the working class and the poor from within the African National Congress (ANC) government. He highlighted that public sector workers have been trying for years to see the implementation of Resolution 1 of 2018—specifically clause 3.3, which speaks to salary increases and the montorum. The failure to fully implement this resolution has played a huge role in alienating many unions from the ruling government.
Financial Grievances Trigger Union Defection
The issue of salary increments remains a major sore point for government employees. While unions have mobilized workers to demand better pay, the government has continually cited a lack of available funds. However, Mbandlwa points out that the situation reached a boiling point when the government unexpectedly announced the issuance of over 600 million to deal with illegal immigration.
Because this funding was not originally planned for, Mbandlwa explains that it signaled to Cosatu that the money does exist, leaving workers feeling that the government is taking them for granted.
Adding to the financial strain is a recent proposal for a 9.8% contribution increase on the medical aid of government employees. Mbandlwa describes this as a major blow to the working class, noting that government servants are currently struggling to pay for medical aid and gain support from the scheme.
Presidential Pleas and the Fractured Alliance
Despite the growing unrest, President Zingiswa Losi used the recent Congress to plead for unity and defend the tripartite alliance. However, the SACP’s leadership has accused Cosatu of flip-flopping, raising the question of whether the federation is quietly splitting into two.
Mbandlwa dismisses the idea of a deep ideological divide within the labor federation, arguing that most Cosatu unions will not differ with NEHAWU’s stance. He notes that NEHAWU is framing the SACP as the true vanguard of the working class, appealing directly to the consciousness of workers who feel the ANC operates as an umbrella body representing all classes—including the bourgeoisie—rather than focusing exclusively on the poor and marginalized.
Electoral Impact: SACP and MK Party to Eat into ANC Votes
If the SACP stands alone with union muscle behind it, the electoral implications for the ANC in metropolitan areas will be severe. Mbandlwa predicts a significant decline in ANC support for the 2026 local government elections.
“I don’t see the SACP taking from many other political parties. I think the majority of voters who will be voting for the SACP are coming from the ANC,” Mbandlwa stated.
He also highlighted that the MK Party, formed in 2023, will further impact the decline of the ANC’s voter base. However, Mbandlwa cautioned that local government elections operate differently than national or provincial polls. Voters tend to base their decisions on local ward performance and the effectiveness of their councilors, meaning some areas might remain insulated from national political shifts if their local representatives are delivering.
The ANC’s Grassroots Challenge
When asked how the ANC is likely to react, Mbandlwa suggested the ruling party will struggle to convince the SACP to reverse its decision, as the choice has already been firmly made.
He emphasized that the ANC must return to the drawing board, noting that historically, the party did not win the backing of the people as a standalone entity. The ANC’s past successes were built on the collaborative efforts of various structures, including the UDF, the SACP, student movements, and street committees.
“Now if the people on the ground are not seeing it really going to be a serious problem for the ANC even to mobilize people on the ground,” Mbandlwa concluded, stressing that the ruling party must find a better way to reconnect with the grassroots structures that once championed the interests of the people.
