New research has revealed that climate change significantly intensified the catastrophic April 2022 floods in Durban, which killed more than 500 people and caused over R50 billion in damages. Scientists from Wits University’s Global Change Institute used advanced climate modeling to determine that global warming made the extreme rainfall event far more severe than it would have been in a pre-industrial climate.
A Historic Disaster
The April 2022 flood was the deadliest in South Africa’s recorded history, with two days of relentless rainfall triggering devastating landslides and overwhelming infrastructure. Some weather stations recorded 300 mm of rain in 24 hours—more than three times Durban’s average April rainfall. The disaster displaced 40,000 people, destroyed homes, roads, and bridges, and left lasting economic scars.
Climate Change’s Role Quantified
Using a high-resolution attribution model, researchers compared today’s climate—warmer due to greenhouse gas emissions—with conditions from the late 1970s. Their findings showed that climate change increased rainfall during the flood by 40% to 170%, making the event far more extreme.
Key factors driving the intensified rainfall included:
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A warmer atmosphere, holding more moisture.
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A hotter Agulhas Current, boosting evaporation and feeding storms.
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Shifting wind patterns, channeling moist air toward KwaZulu-Natal.
Calls for Better Preparedness
Professor Francois Engel, a lead researcher, warned that South Africa must improve disaster response systems, particularly for evacuations. “We need to learn how to evacuate 10,000 people in a day or two,” he said, pointing to Mozambique’s success in moving 50,000 people ahead of cyclones.
Engel stressed the need for early warning systems, community trust in disaster management, and long-term adaptation, including relocating vulnerable communities living in flood-prone areas.
Global Responsibility
The study highlights how developing nations—despite contributing little to global emissions—bear the brunt of climate disasters. Engel urged the U.S. and China, which produce 40% of global emissions, to lead a faster transition from fossil fuels to renewables. “As long as these economies remain dependent on coal, oil, and gas, extreme weather will keep worsening,” he said.
Looking Ahead
The research underscores the urgent need for climate adaptation funding and emission cuts to prevent future tragedies. For Durban and other high-risk regions, the message is clear: without global action, deadly floods will become even more frequent—and more devastating.
