JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA — Former Democratic Alliance (DA) leader Tony Leon has issued a stark warning that South Africa’s state institutions are critically hollowed out, arguing that the upcoming June 30 anti-illegal immigration protests will severely test the government’s ability to maintain law and order.
In a recently penned opinion piece, Leon invoked Martin Niemöller’s famous “First they came” poem to highlight the dangers of political apathy and moral cowardice. While clarifying that South Africa bears no resemblance to Nazi Germany, he emphasized that the nation’s constitutional state remains under significant threat due to the deterioration of the institutions tasked with protecting it.
Leon pointed to a severe crisis in police leadership as a primary indicator of this institutional decay. He noted that the country currently has no full-time police minister, as the permanent minister is on leave pending an investigation. Similarly, there is no full-time national police chief, with an acting appointment in place because the previous incumbent is also under investigation. Furthermore, Leon described a “verbal war” between key security institutions, including the provincial police head in KwaZulu-Natal and the investigative arm of the security services.
These concerns were strongly echoed by Ian Cameron, chairperson of the parliamentary portfolio committee on police. Cameron corroborated the assessment of a hollowed-out South African Police Service (SAPS), revealing that the country currently has fewer operational police members than it did a decade ago, despite significant population growth and a cross-border influx of people. He also highlighted that the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation (the Hawks) is operating at merely 45% capacity. Consequently, Cameron stressed that the SAPS cannot manage the security situation alone and requires a collaborative effort with the private security industry.
Drawing on historical precedents of state failure, Leon referenced the 2008 xenophobic riots in Khutsong, which claimed over 60 lives—including 21 South African citizens—and the devastating July 2021 riots and looting, which resulted in over 350 deaths and an estimated R50 billion blow to the economy. In both instances, the state failed to preempt the violence.
However, Leon expressed cautious optimism regarding the June 30 protests, noting a higher degree of vigilance compared to previous crises. He pointed to preemptive coordination between public law enforcement and private security companies, including the deployment of surveillance drones funded by the business lobby group Business for South Africa. Additionally, the acting police minister reportedly confirmed that the government has allocated R600 million to manage the security situation ahead of the planned demonstrations.
Addressing the root causes of the impending protests, Leon acknowledged that debates surrounding migration, border security, and job competition are legitimate exercises of free speech. However, he stressed that the Constitution “is not a suicide note” and warned against insurrectionary or incendiary rhetoric. He expressed surprise that no preemptive arrests had been made against individuals allegedly stoking unrest outside constitutional protections.
Leon also pushed back against the scapegoating of migrants, estimating them to be around 5% of the population. He argued that undocumented migrants are not the cause of South Africa’s 42% unemployment rate, sluggish economic growth, or widespread poverty, placing the primary responsibility squarely on the elected government.
While President Cyril Ramaphosa recently acknowledged in a national address that public resources are strained by unlawful residents, Leon questioned the state’s broader competence. He criticized the current focus on repatriation as “shutting the door after the horse has bolted,” demanding answers on how millions of undocumented individuals were allowed to enter the country in the first place and what is being done to secure the borders moving forward.
