PRETORIA, Gauteng — As the nation prepares to head to the polls this Wednesday for the 2026 Local Government Elections, coalition governments in South Africa are rapidly becoming the defining feature of the country’s political landscape. With no guarantee that any single party will secure an outright majority in many councils, political scientist Professor Susan Booysen describes the shift toward multi-party governance as a “new and growing normal.”
Based on her extensive monitoring and analysis, Professor Booysen argues that close to, or even over, half of South Africa’s 257 municipalities could operate under coalition governments following Wednesday’s election.
A Fragmented Political Landscape
The upcoming election is being characterized as crucial, historic, and highly fragmented. According to Professor Booysen, polling data indicates that the historically predominant party, the ANC, continues to decline in size. While not being wiped off the political landscape, the ANC is losing its previous predominance.
Simultaneously, other political parties such as the DA and the MK party are growing or stabilizing, though they are not entirely supplanting the ANC. Professor Booysen describes the current political climate as a potential stalemate, emphasizing that political parties must “grow up” and accept that South Africans are voting for multiple parties in a true multi-party democracy.
Her research highlights a steady increase in coalition councils. Over the last five years, 93 of the 257 municipalities have experienced coalition governments, with 26 continuously operating under or having been in a coalition at some point, representing about 33% to 35% of total council seats. The number of coalition councils jumped from roughly 30 prior to 2016 to 70 between 2016 and 2021. If public opinion polls hold true, a projected increase of 35 new councils joining the coalition ranks would bring the total to half of all local, metropolitan, and district municipalities.
Furthermore, while the ANC remains the predominant party in 105 of the 205 local municipalities, it often holds these majorities by very slim margins, making a significant rise in coalition municipalities inevitable.
The Blame Game and Campaign Tactics
A major characteristic of the current election cycle is the use of past coalition instability as a campaign weapon. Political parties are highlighting the chaos and bad governance seen in some coalition councils to motivate voters to avoid alternatives and “unite the vote” behind a single large party like the ANC or the DA.
However, Professor Booysen points out that chaos, maladministration, and mismanagement were not exclusive to coalition municipalities; single-party, majority governments have also failed to deliver in many areas. She warns against parties using the post-election negotiation phase as a rainmaker for a second election, urging them not to grab power with the help of tiny micro-parties to secure a mandate that voters did not fully grant them.
Post-Election Negotiations and Voter Disconnect
A critical issue in the current system is the disconnect between voters and the post-election reality. Professor Booysen notes that voters often believe their role ends once they cast their ballots. In reality, political parties begin a “new election” during the negotiation phase, aligning with whichever partners are least troublesome to reach a minimal majority of just one seat over 50%.
Because parties are reluctant to specify their preferred coalition partners before the election, voters have very little control over the final governing arrangements. This dynamic is complicated by differing political cultures entering the negotiation mix, ranging from traditional liberation ideologies to ethnic nationalism and hyper-local service delivery demands.
An Election of Accountability
Despite the rocky history of some coalitions, Professor Booysen remains optimistic that stable and effective municipalities are achievable if political parties mature and accept proportional multi-party government.
She describes the 2026 elections as a “wakeup call” and an “election of accountability” where the chickens have come home to roost. Voters are increasingly responding to visible, ground-level service delivery rather than broad liberation promises.
However, the transition remains fragile due to legislative gaps. There is currently no Coalitions Bill in place—a work in progress that may take another year or two to yield concrete results. Additionally, there are no legal restraints on motions of no confidence, allowing parties to use them frivolously to remove mayors or councils. Until legal frameworks enforce stability or parties voluntarily exercise restraint, Professor Booysen stresses that voters hold a massive responsibility to demand accountability and transparency from their chosen parties both before and after the ballots are counted.
