GAUTENG — Following the recent South African municipal election results, which revealed 131 hung councils across the country, coalition negotiations are expected to intensify as political parties seek partners to secure control of municipalities. The outcomes have significantly elevated the influence of smaller parties, many of which are now positioned to play a decisive role in determining local governance over the next five years.
Political analyst Khanyi Magubane noted that the record number of hung municipalities marks a definitive shift in the nation’s political landscape. According to Magubane, South African politics has completely transitioned from majority rule to coalition politics, a trend that has been a defining feature since 2016.
The Decline of the ANC and the Rise of New Challengers
A central theme of the election is the gradual decline of the African National Congress (ANC). Magubane explained that disgruntled ANC members have defected to a variety of organizations offering alternative choices. These defections are not limited to a single faction; voters have moved to the MK Party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and ActionSA in significant numbers.
The ANC’s struggle was particularly evident in metropolitan areas. In the City of Johannesburg, the party failed to field clear mayoral candidates, signaling a lack of confidence to the electorate. Consequently, ActionSA has emerged as a formidable challenger, capturing key areas such as Hillbrow and Berea in Johannesburg by capitalizing on current messaging regarding illegal immigration.
In the Eastern Cape, the United Democratic Movement (UDM) and the South African Communist Party (SACP)—which is now standing on its own for the first time outside the Tripartite Alliance—are gaining substantial influence. Magubane attributed their success directly to the ANC’s declining electoral support in the region, noting that these smaller parties are creating new political homes for disillusioned voters.
Coalition Dynamics in the City of Tshwane
In the City of Tshwane, ActionSA has secured control of several wards, including Soshanguve, Mabopane, and Atteridgeville, areas where the ANC previously held majorities. ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba has been emphatic that Nasiphi Moya will return as the mayor of the city, despite the party not securing an outright majority.
Magubane highlighted that residents across the political spectrum have placed their trust in Nasiphi Moya, prioritizing stability and the continuation of existing service delivery programs. While the DA secured a higher overall vote count in Tshwane with mayoral candidate Cilliers Brink, Magubane pointed out that the DA is hindered by lingering public perceptions of “racialized service delivery” from its previous tenure. ActionSA has successfully campaigned on this narrative, positioning itself as a more equitable alternative for the majority of residents.
Political Fragmentation and Voter Disillusionment
The election saw unprecedented fragmentation, with 540 political parties, independent candidates, and community-based organizations contesting the polls. This proliferation of smaller groups has raised concerns about the dilution of the black vote. Critics argue that these smaller entities chip away at the numerical strength of larger, left-leaning organizations without securing meaningful seats, ultimately rendering their presence counterproductive to broader governance mandates.
Despite the fragmentation, Magubane emphasized that the core issue remains voter disillusionment. Many citizens stayed away from the polls or voted for new parties due to repeated failures by politicians to improve material conditions on the ground.
Looking ahead, Magubane stated that the parties securing these new mandates are now under pressure to translate their pre-election manifestos into tangible service delivery. While acknowledging a natural pessimism regarding political promises, she expressed cautious optimism that the new political entrants will turn a corner and deliver the changes voters are demanding.
