JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA — The recent wave of South Africa protests against illegal immigration has brought central business districts to a standstill, prompting urgent warnings about the severe economic impact on the nation. According to Chris Hattingh, director of the Centre for Risk Analysis, the ongoing unrest targeting undocumented immigration has already resulted in estimated economic losses ranging between R2 billion and R5 billion.
The “March and March” movement has announced plans for weekly nationwide protests every Thursday for the next six months. A recent march in Durban completely halted the central business district, raising alarms among business leaders and the premier of KwaZulu-Natal about the potential damage to investment, tourism, and job creation.
The Scale of Disruption and Economic Estimates
Hattingh notes that the lost economic output is heavily concentrated in the metros of Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Western Cape. These three provinces are responsible for the vast majority of South Africa’s economic activity. Even without the large-scale violence seen in previous years, the shuttering of CBDs and business nodes has forced many to work from home or miss work entirely, driving the R2 billion to R5 billion figure.
While the disruptions are significant, Hattingh clarified that reaching the R50 billion mark seen during the July 2021 riots is not feasible, even if the protests extend through the end of the year. During the July 2021 unrest, which lasted about 10 days, the state was caught off guard, and the logistics sector alone suffered massive losses.
State Preparedness and Financial Costs
Unlike the 2021 riots, the government was better prepared for the recent June 30 shutdowns. The “March and March” movement communicated a deadline in advance, allowing the state to plan accordingly. Authorities had the army on standby and deployed over R600 million in resources and personnel.
The acting minister responsible for the South African Police Service (SAPS) reconfigured the department’s budget to accommodate these operational costs. Hattingh noted that while this R600 million adds to the financial burden, proactive planning and clear communication helped prevent a catastrophic economic collapse.
The Heavy Toll on Small Businesses
While large corporates have the resources and personnel to absorb disruptions, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are bearing the brunt of the uncertainty. Hattingh highlighted that small businesses are already navigating a highly challenging economic landscape.
In Johannesburg, businesses recently faced the latest round of tariff and rates increases as of July. Additionally, they are grappling with consistently rising Eskom electricity prices and fluctuating fuel and diesel costs. Although there was a fuel price cut in July, prices have not returned to pre-war levels, a situation exacerbated by global geopolitical issues such as the Strait of Hormuz not returning to full operational levels.
All of these factors drive up the cost of doing business. “They’ve got less wiggle room than bigger companies,” Hattingh explained, warning that the added disruption of weekly protests could force some small businesses to close their doors or shrink their workforces just to survive the uncertainty.
Resilience and the Path Forward
Despite the compounding challenges, South African businesses have developed a “resilience phenomenon.” Hattingh described it as a muscle memory built over years of dealing with service delivery outages and increased security concerns. If protests are planned and communicated well, businesses can adapt—perhaps by closing early on Thursdays—much like they have adapted to other operational hurdles.
However, Hattingh cautioned that this resilience has its limits. The continuous need to mitigate security risks and service delivery issues drains the available capital that businesses need to grow.
He emphasized that if the state adequately handled basic functions such as crime prevention and border security, businesses would have more room to build resilience, invest capital, and create jobs. Reducing the country’s critical unemployment rate remains a pivotal goal, especially as the nation approaches the local government elections on November 4. How the state manages the balance between allowing peaceful protest and maintaining economic stability will likely be a defining issue for voters.
