PRETORIA — South Africa’s constitutional promise has been severely undermined by poor data governance and rising unemployment, according to Pan African Institute for Evidence director Dr Pali Lehohla. Speaking at the Electoral Commission’s Thought Leadership Seminar, Dr Lehohla delivered a stark warning that the country’s democracy is on “life support, if not dead already,” as policy failures continue to disproportionately impact the youth and drive voter apathy.
The seminar was convened to analyze the phenomenon of rising unemployment and its direct influence on voting patterns. Referencing Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) observations about citizens increasingly refusing to go to the polls, Dr Lehohla presented a longitudinal meta-data analysis drawn from four national censuses since 1996, alongside the Quarterly Labour Force Survey. He highlighted a critical demographic juncture where 16.9 million people were employed against 16.7 million who were not economically active.
From this data, Dr Lehohla introduced the “labour disappearance index,” a metric identifying areas where citizens have become economically invisible. He noted a direct, accelerating correlation between these zones of labour disappearance and the collapse of local democratic participation since 1994.
Refusing to offer politicians “easy ways out,” Dr Lehohla criticized the rush to campaign without a foundational national dialogue. He reiterated his stance from 2019 and 2024 that elections should be postponed until the root causes of these socioeconomic crises are properly understood. He argued that rushing to solutions based on a “cavalier understanding” of the problem, or total disregard for evidence, only leads to further mismanagement.
Expanding on the economic drivers, Dr Lehohla described South Africa as a 21 trillion economy that is artificially constrained to operate at only 7 trillion due to “monopoly capital” and extreme financialization. He explained that monopolies intentionally operate at the precise point where marginal cost equals marginal revenue, deliberately avoiding the risks associated with expanding plants and employing more people. Despite hosting one of the world’s 18 largest stock exchanges, South Africa remains uniquely burdened by high unemployment, poverty, and inequality compared to its global peers.
The director also took aim at international and domestic economic policy frameworks. He pointed out that the World Bank recently admitted its past criticisms of China’s industrial policies were wrong, and the IMF has acknowledged flaws in its historical lending processes. Domestically, he questioned the fragmented economic leadership, describing the coordination between the Reserve Bank, Treasury, and industry as an “amorphous group” lacking clear, accountable direction.
Addressing local government failures, Dr Lehohla warned against the creeping privatization of municipal services. He argued that allowing the private sector to take charge transforms essential service delivery into a profit-making venture, further marginalizing residents who already face dysfunctional infrastructure. He highlighted severe wealth disparities, noting that the top 10% of income earners control 65% of the country’s resources. He described this systemic wealth extraction as a “siphon” that drains resources from townships and mining regions, such as Qutubeni, and the Eastern Cape, funneling it to affluent hubs like Sandton and offshore accounts.
Concluding his address, Dr Lehohla urged a grassroots approach to policy formulation. He advocated for decentralizing data, making census findings accessible at the village and community levels so that citizens can independently analyze their realities and craft their own political manifestos. True recovery, he insisted, requires “welding the economy in the regions where value is produced” rather than allowing corporate head offices to bundle and extract regional wealth.
