PRETORIA, Gauteng — Following the conclusion of the 2026 Local Government Elections, African National Congress (ANC) Secretary General Fikile Mbalula has acknowledged that the party is facing an “existential crisis” after suffering significant electoral losses across all provinces.
With 98 percent of voting districts declared nationally, the ANC’s support has plummeted from 45.59 percent in the 2021 municipal polls to approximately 30.89 percent in the 2026 Local Government Elections. Addressing the media, Mbalula conceded that the results fell even below the party’s internal polling, which had projected a 34 percent outcome.
“Sins of Incumbency” and Service Delivery Failures
When pressed on accountability for the steep decline, Mbalula stated that the current leadership steering the party takes responsibility. However, he emphasized that the immediate task is to develop a doctrine on how to respond to the outcome before conducting a deep-dive analysis into individual accountability.
Mbalula attributed the electoral setback largely to the “sins of incumbency,” pointing to severe economic and service delivery challenges. He highlighted the soaring cost of living, a stagnant economy, and widespread job shedding as primary objective factors. Furthermore, he cited the mismanagement of local government in several cities, specifically singling out Johannesburg as a key area of failure.
“The objective factor that hits at our incumbency is the question of the cost of living. Everything is very expensive,” Mbalula explained, noting that the black middle class, which holds a grievance with the party’s incumbency, was the first to react.
He acknowledged that voters directly punished the party for basic service delivery failures, such as water switch-offs and uncollected refuse. “People then said we will go and vote and punish you,” he said, noting that some voters explicitly threatened to shift their support to political figures like Herman Mashaba.
The Rise of ActionSA and the Believability Deficit
The ANC also lost significant ground to ActionSA, which successfully shifted voter mindsets in metros like Tshwane. Mbalula noted that despite the ANC being part of the governing coalition in Tshwane and implementing various interventions, voters still flocked to ActionSA and its mayoral leadership.
Mbalula stressed that the core issue is one of “believability” with the electorate. While the ANC retains a resilient base of supporters who still want the party in government, the disconnect between the party’s efforts and the voters’ lived experiences has created a massive credibility gap.
Staring Down an Existential Crisis
Looking ahead to the 2029 general elections, Mbalula issued a stark warning about the party’s trajectory. He admitted that if the ANC fails to address the core issues raised by voters and accelerate social transformation, it faces an existential crisis of its own making.
“If we don’t change on these things… we are then facing what we call an existential crisis,” Mbalula said. “We will go away by 2029.” He emphasized that the catastrophic outcome demands that the party close the propaganda gap with society, stay close to its base, and visibly fix critical infrastructure issues, particularly the national water crisis. He also pointed to the November 4 midterm budget as a step toward mitigating the cost of living, though he acknowledged that recent fuel price adjustments—such as a mere one-cent drop in petrol prices—remain insufficient for citizens.
Internal Dynamics and Coalition Realities
Despite the poor showing, which saw the ANC lose its outright majorities in the Buffalo City and Mangaung metros, Mbalula dismissed fears of an internal revolt. While acknowledging that some may wish to use the results to fuel opportunism for leadership positions, he urged members to focus on the party’s resilience. He noted that while the ANC constitution allows two-thirds of branches to call for a special conference, the current focus must remain on responding to the electoral outcome.
Regarding the formation of new coalitions, Mbalula made it clear that the ANC is not rushing into agreements “with a cap in the hand.” The party’s national executive will conclude its coalition strategy on Thursday. Mbalula revealed that the ANC is considering all options, including the unprecedented move of taking to the opposition benches, rather than simply negotiating for a slice of executive power.
Constitutional Court Victory Validates Loyalty
In his closing remarks, Mbalula defended the party’s aggressive legal strategy during the election, specifically its decision to take the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) to the Constitutional Court over the inclusion of 181 candidates and wards.
He argued that the late legal victory was not in vain, as it successfully prevented the disenfranchisement of voters. Mbalula noted that the ANC emerged victorious in most of those contested wards, proving that despite the national decline, grassroots loyalty to the party remains intact when voters are given the full opportunity to participate.
