South Africa has recorded a sharp increase in firearm licence applications over the past six years, according to South African Police Service (SAPS) annual reports. New applications rose from 99,000 in 2018/19 to 167,000 in 2024/25—a nearly 70% surge. Competency assessment applications also climbed from 154,000 to 193,000 during the same period. The trend unfolds against a backdrop of persistent violent crime, with more than 70 murders recorded daily nationwide.
The statistics have intensified debate over whether increased civilian firearm ownership enhances personal safety or escalates the risk of gun violence. Three experts weighed in on the issue.
Dr. Stanley Maphosa, Executive Director of Gun Free South Africa, expressed concern about the rising applications. He noted that factors driving demand include public fear, proposed legislative amendments, and increased interest from hunters, sport shooters, private security firms, and private individuals. He also highlighted a decline in licence renewals around 2022, with approximately 75% of licences going unrenewed.
“For us, the issue is whether this is going to improve public safety and public security,” Maphosa said. “As we increase the numbers of firearms, we also increase the possibility for diversion, corruption, loss and stealing—putting the majority who have not applied into danger.” He added that research indicates 22 firearms are lost daily from civilian sources, including individual owners and private security companies, emphasizing that illegal firearms often originate from the legal market.
Paul Oxley, Chairman of Gun Owners South Africa, argued the surge reflects a loss of public confidence in state protection. Citing testimony from the Mlanga Commission of Inquiry alleging that 70% of SAPS members in KwaZulu-Natal are corrupt, Oxley stated, “We’re all on our own here… We’re dying out here because the SAPS is just a completely ineffective and corrupt organization.”
Oxley pointed to community-led safety initiatives, including a recent training course in Cape Town organized by Girls on Fire, which hosted 28 women—including provincial legislature members—learning situational awareness and firearm use for self-defence. He contended the core problem lies not with civilian-owned firearms but with state-controlled weapons, referencing the case of Colonel Chris Prinsloo, who allegedly transported approximately 2,500 guns from police armories to the Western Cape for sale to criminal networks. Prinsloo avoided imprisonment after turning state witness, Oxley noted, adding that other alleged participants in the ring have not faced prosecution.
Professor Nirmala Gopal, a criminologist at the University of KwaZulu-Natal’s Criminology and Forensic Studies department, said the rise in applications was unsurprising given prevailing fear and crime statistics. She acknowledged a potential benefit: legally registered firearms could aid investigations when guns are used in crimes. However, she voiced concern that increasing the number of firearms in a country already experiencing high levels of gun-related violence could lead to more firearm-enabled crimes.
Gopal referenced recent remarks by the Western Cape provincial police commissioner, who reported that approximately 35,000 licensed firearms belonging to deceased individuals over the past five years remain unaccounted for, with only 7,000 to 9,000 returned to authorities. “Why is it that our law enforcement agencies are unable to track down these guns?” she asked, linking the issue to broader challenges in policing effectiveness.
Describing the situation as a “revolving door,” Gopal emphasized the need for stringent vetting of licence applicants and ongoing monitoring of how legal firearm owners store and secure their weapons. She called for a national conversation involving multiple stakeholders to explore non-violent conflict resolution strategies and strengthen the state’s constitutional obligation to protect citizens.
As applications continue to rise, the divide between those advocating for stricter firearm controls and those supporting expanded civilian access for self-defence remains pronounced. All three experts agreed, however, that improving transparency, accountability, and enforcement within the firearms licensing system is critical—regardless of one’s position on civilian gun ownership.
