- Retail sales volumes fell by an estimated 0.9% in September, following a 0.4% rise in August.
- Sales volumes are down 0.8% in the three months to September 2023 compared to the previous three months, although the value of those sales are up 0.3%.
- The month saw a 1.9% fall in non-food store sales volumes, with non-store sales down 2.2%, partially offset by a 0.2% rise in food store sales volumes.
- Retail sales had been expected to fall 0.2% (Trading Economics).
Nicholas Hyett, Investment Manager at Wealth Club, commented:
“Exclude motor fuel and September’s retail volumes have come in a whole percentage point lower than August, and significantly below what economists had been expecting.
Online retailers have been hit hardest, but that will be no relief for the high street. The trend is put down to the record-breaking warm weather in September, and could easily go into reverse. With evidence of higher prices in these numbers too, there’s a lot of gloom where the UK shopper is concerned.
That’s not all bad news though. The Bank of England’s higher interest rates are designed to squeeze consumers and keep them from splashing the cash too freely. After September’s higher than expected inflation numbers, weak retail sales may help convince interest rate setters that they can afford to wait before moving rates up again.
For equity investors, the relatively stronger result from food-store retailers will be reassurance that some old market wisdom remains true – even in the current turmoil. Consumer staples are usually one of the most defensive areas of the stock market, and while branded products have been struggling a bit recently, the supermarkets themselves seem to performing well. That defensiveness will be welcome if we do enter an economic downturn.”
Ends
For further information contact:
Jo Thorne: 07939882816, jo.thorne@
