Wildfires push tropical forest loss in Latin America to record highs

MEXICO CITY — In 2024, six Latin American countries were in the top 10 nations with the highest loss of tropical primary forest, according to recent data from the University of Maryland, U.S. Topping the list were Brazil and Bolivia, in a year that saw the record-breaking loss of 6.7 million hectares (16.6 million acres) of forest, 80% more than in 2023. In the Amazon, forest loss jumped by 110% compared to 2023, the biggest increase since 2016.

Although tropical forest loss rose globally, some countries, like Indonesia and Malaysia, saw improvements. In Latin America, however, even countries that had previously curbed forest loss, such as Brazil and Colombia, experienced dramatic losses.

Wildfires encroach on tropical forests

In 2024, wildfires burned five times more tropical primary forest than the year before. Brazil, Bolivia and Mexico saw particularly high numbers of wildfires. “The rapid loss of forest is very sad news at a time when we need our forests more than ever,” says Marlene Quintanilla Palacios, director of research and knowledge management at Bolivian conservation NGO Fundación Amigos de la Naturaleza (Friends of Nature Foundation). Last year was also the hottest year on record, with Latin America experiencing intense droughts due to a strong El Niño, a recurring climate pattern marked by warmer Pacific waters. “Climate change is accelerating all of this,” Quintanilla Palacios says.

If wildfires become the main driver of tropical primary forest loss, we will lose more forest, and much faster, as climate change is drying them out, says Rod Taylor, director of the forests program at the World Resources Institute (WRI). By September last year, rivers in the Amazon Basin had dropped to their lowest levels ever. “You go to the rainforest these days and there is barely any water anymore,” Taylor says. Rainforests, once too humid to burn, are becoming tinder-dry and flammable. “It’s a really worrying shift,” he adds.

According to Taylor, fires are almost entirely human-caused, but their spread is increasingly linked to drought.

Bolivia: Failure to protect forests

More than 60% of Bolivia’s 2024 primary forest loss was due to wildfires. The country, which lost the most forest after Brazil, experienced extreme droughts and the most devastating wildfire season on record, which razed about 11.5% of its territory.

Forest loss in Bolivia has surged in recent years, breaking records for three consecutive years. From 2023 to 2024, forest loss jumped by 200%. “It is the worst environmental disaster we have ever lived,” Quintanilla Palacios says.

Stasiek Czaplicki Cabezas, a Bolivian researcher and environmental economist who worked on the GFW report, says fires increasingly have “a life of their own,” spreading in unpredictable and uncontrollable ways.

Fire is commonly used in Bolivia to clear land to make room for cattle ranching or cultivation of monocrops such as soy, sugarcane or corn. “Fire is the cheapest way of clearing land,” Quintanilla Palacios says, but adds, “fire can be as deadly a trigger as deforestation.”

She also points to shifting demographics: 50 years ago, about two-thirds of the population lived in the Bolivian highlands, and a third in the lower-elevation, forest-dense areas. Today, some 50-60% live in the forested lowlands, where they’re more likely to clear the forest because they lack the same connection to the land as the original Indigenous people, Quintanilla Palacios says.

Local experts say the Bolivian government has made matters worse. Its fire management strategy focuses on emergency response rather than prevention. “There is no proactive management … the government took action very late,” Quintanilla Palacios says.

Illegal deforestation in Bolivia also largely goes unpunished. “People know nothing ever happens, there are no sanctions,” Czaplicki Cabezas says. Only about 3% of illegal deforestation cases are punished, he estimates, while “fines are ridiculously low.”

Czaplicki Cabezas adds that government policies have actively promoted deforestation through agricultural expansion targets. There’s no legal security for forests in Bolivia, Quintanilla Palacios says, with laws weakened to allow further cattle and crop expansion.

Bolivia’s forest conservation is very dependent on international funds. Czaplicki Cabezas says that while the forest crisis generates additional conservation funds for the country, the money isn’t always invested where it’s needed the most. Border areas are particularly neglected, and international organizations often stay away from areas “where they may not be able to deliver fast results,” he says.

Amid the destruction, Charagua Iyambae, an Indigenous territory in southeastern Bolivia, stands out. The community successfully prevented fires for a second consecutive year in 2024 through early-warning systems and land-use enforcement. “We can learn something from Indigenous governance,” Czaplicki Cabezas says.

Experts say that 2025 and 2026 could bring some respite for Bolivia’s forests. After a year of record heat, climate conditions could mean wildfires will spread less violently. The devaluation of the Bolivian currency and a slowing economy could also dampen deforestation, Quintanilla Palacios says. However, experts say the root causes of Bolivia’s forest loss will remain. With presidential elections approaching in August, Czaplicki Cabezas says no candidate is calling for improving forest conservation; instead, all the major political forces appear committed to policies that would further expand the agricultural frontier and accelerate forest loss.

“History could repeat itself,” Quintanilla Palacios says. She adds there’s no real intention from the government to contain deforestation and that Bolivia is no better prepared to face forest fires now than it was in 2024.

Mexico: More fires than ever

In 2024, Mexico lost almost twice as much tropical primary forest as it did in 2023, the GFW data show, attributing most of that loss to wildfires. More than 8,000 fires battered the country last year, burning more than 1.67 million hectares (4.1 million acres) of land, the largest area since 1998, when Mexico’s National Forestry Commission (CONAFOR) started recording wildfires.

Despite the fires, Mexico is likely to report a reduction in deforestation in 2024 as CONAFOR prepares to publish its latest data. This is because CONAFOR estimates deforestation through a satellite-based forest monitoring system using a sampling approach that analyzes more than 26,000 plots of land across the country and extrapolates national-level deforestation estimates through remote sensing and photointerpretation.

GFW, on the other hand, tracks tropical primary forest loss, which accounts for the removal of tree canopy as a result of both human and natural causes, without factoring in restoration or regeneration. This means it doesn’t reflect the net change in tree cover. The GFW data are based on satellite imager with a resolution of 30 meters (100 feet), a relatively coarse resolution that may mean partial canopy loss is interpreted as full loss, thus potentially overestimating forest loss. As a result, national statistics may sometimes offer more precise local assessments.

“Fires don’t generate deforestation,” says Sergio Humberto Graf Montero, director-general of CONAFOR. He says vegetation cover can change, but that doesn’t necessarily mean there’s deforestation. According to CONAFOR, just 5% of tree cover was affected by fire in 2024.

Graf Montero acknowledges that Mexico has a deforestation problem, but dismisses fires as a major driver. He says fires can occur naturally in temperate forests and are closely linked with climate change and prolonged droughts, which Mexico experienced last year. He points to recent fires in the United States as an illustration that an absolute fire suppression policy in areas “where fire is natural” can result in more catastrophic fires.

Instead, Graf Montero points to cattle ranching as a main driver of deforestation in Mexico. He says the government is working to establish a “deforestation-free corridor” and achieve deforestation-free cattle ranching, but that this “will take more time.” Ultimately, he says, the government’s goal is to “stop deforestation 100%” in the period from 2024-2030.

Guyana: Spike in forest loss

With forest cover of 87%, Guyana is one of the South American countries with the most intact forest. The country has a special status as a “high-forest, low-deforestation” (HFLD) country, which has allowed it to generate additional income through forest conservation. The government says it wants to keep deforestation rates low through its Low Carbon Development Strategy.

But according to the GFW data, tropical forest loss quadrupled in Guyana from 2023 to 2024, with more than half of that loss due to wildfires.

The highest amount of forest loss was in the Cuyuni-Mazaruni region, bordering Venezuela and closely linked to fires and gold mining. Gold is one of Guyana’s biggest exports, and mining of the metal is responsible for almost 35% of Guyana’s primary forest loss over the past 24 years. The Guyanese gold rush has intensified as global prices of gold have increased by more than 40% within the past year.

According to Venezuela-based investigative group SOS Orinoco, the mining footprint in Essequibo, a resource-rich region in western Guyana, is almost double that of Bolívar state in neighboring Venezuela. Bolívar is part of Venezuela’s Orinoco Mining Arc, known for expansive gold mining, while Essequibo is claimed by Venezuela, with the territorial dispute pending at the International Court of Justice in The Hague and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro threatening to militarily assert Caracas’s claim over Essequibo. SOS Orinoco says the Guyanese government is using this legal uncertainty to extract as much gold and timber as possible from the area.

SOS Orinoco, which operates mostly anonymously out of fear of Venezuelan government repression, tells Mongabay that “the Guyanese state has laws that promote mining and it does not have legislation that protects the forest areas and fragile lands from this devastating activity.” It adds there are barely any local NGOs holding the government accountable.

Colombia: Conflict undermines forests

According to GFW data, Brazil and Colombia achieved a significant reduction in primary forest loss from 2022 to 2023, of 36% and 46%, respectively. However, both countries saw massive setbacks in 2024, with primary forest loss jumping by almost 150% in Brazil and nearly 50% in Colombia from the previous year.

Brazil is home to the greatest area of tropical primary forest than any other country in the world, and accounts for 42% of all primary forest loss in the tropics.

Like in most of the region, forest loss in Brazil in 2024 was driven largely by fire (66%). Colombia was a rare exception, with the spike in forest loss attributed largely to the breakdown of peace negotiations with armed groups, allowing for a boom in illegal economies like gold and coca, and the expansion of cattle ranching.

In 2016, the Colombian government signed a peace agreement with the country’s largest guerrilla group, the Armed Revolutionary Forces of Colombia (FARC). However, the deal left out other militia groups and was followed by the emergence of new dissident groups. President Gustavo Petro took office in 2022 with a promise to bring total peace by negotiating with several of these groups. In some of the regions controlled by one of these groups, Estado Mayor Central, deforestation plunged from 2022 to 2023 by up to 51%, demonstrating goodwill toward the Colombian government ahead of last year’s U.N. biodiversity summit, or COP16, in Cali.

“Deforestation has become a currency” in peace talks, says Joaquín Carrizosa, a senior adviser at World Resources Institute Colombia. Peace negotiations with Estado Mayor Central and other armed groups have largely broken down and deforestation has exploded.

Carrizosa says Colombia suffers from a lack of governance, with more killings of environmental defenders than any other country. This, he says, breaks the social fabric and makes forest conservation even harder.

Colombia has previously shown that it’s possible to improve rates of forest loss, Carrizosa says, “because deforestation is not a natural phenomenon.”

A nudge for action

Experts say forests across Latin America may fare better in 2025, not so much because of human actions to tackle the drivers of deforestation, but rather because of possible fluctuations in weather patterns.

The GFW data could, however, trigger local and global responses, experts say. “Having the data in the public domain, available for all sectors of the economy, is a big part of it,” says WRI’s Taylor. He says he hopes governments, businesses and civil society organizations will react to the data. 

With the right policies, it’s possible to reverse the trend, Taylor says. “Brazil was a good example,” he says, pointing to reduced deforestation rates under the administration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, although he adds that political will often vary over time. He says enough pieces could come together if more governments would implement initiatives like the European Union Deforestation Regulation, and if companies become more stringent about decoupling their supply chains from deforestation, especially enticing farmers in areas where deforestation may not be illegal.

Since transnational criminal groups are responsible for a significant part of the region’s deforestation, Carrizosa says that “follow-the-money approach” to crime and deforestation would also be beneficial.

The Tropical Forest Finance Facility, proposed by Brazil ahead of hosting COP30, the U.N. climate summit, in November, could also help the world’s forests, Taylor says. The fund aims to mobilize large-scale public and private financing to reward tropical countries for reducing deforestation and conserving forests.

Carrizosa agrees there’s a need to change the economic model for the Amazon, highlighting that in the current environment, it’s almost always more lucrative to cutting down trees than conserve them. “The more you can build [conservation] into the business model, the better,” he says.

Banner image: In 2024, fire outbreaks spread throughout the Amazon, Pantanal and Cerrado biomes, as well as highly populated areas in São Paulo state. Image courtesy of Gustavo Figueirôa/SOS Pantanal.

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