- Ecuador will hold presidential elections on Feb. 9, with incumbent center-right Daniel Noboa facing left-wing challenger Luisa González.
- Both candidates have prioritized security concerns and the economy over environmental issues like climate change, deforestation and water scarcity, but do have some policy proposals that could be promising.
- Noboa and González both promise to increase protections for forests, protected areas and Indigenous communities, but also plan to continue attracting foreign investment in mining, oil and gas, and other activities that threaten Ecuador’s vulnerable ecosystems.
The last time Ecuador held elections, in 2023, the country’s national assembly had been dissolved and then-President Guillermo Lasso had faced potential impeachment for a corruption scandal involving embezzlement of public oil transport funds. It led to a political crisis that saw snap presidential elections usher in the young Daniel Noboa, the son of a wealthy banana tycoon. Up to that point, his political experience amounted to one term in the National Assembly.
Noboa, just 35 years old at the time, took on an Ecuador in crisis. For years it had been a bastion of social and economic stability in the region, but now it faced rising gang violence, energy shortages and debates over the country’s dependence on oil and gas. His approach to these problems drew criticism for an aggressive use of law enforcement, alleged human rights violations and a disregard of international law. Nevertheless, he’s still the favorite to win on Feb. 9.
The center-right Noboa is one of 16 candidates running for president in Ecuador, with left-wing Luisa González, a lawyer and politician who lost to Noboa in 2023, currently his main opponent in the polls. In addition to the presidential election, the country will also elect all 151 members of the National Assembly.
The environment isn’t a top priority for either presidential candidate. Right now, the focus is on crime and the economy. But their stances on mining, oil and gas, energy and agriculture will have a lot to say about whether the country can meet its conservation goals over the next four years.
Noboa says he believes in climate change. His proposals for a 2025-2029 term include promoting sustainable development that respects natural resources, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and strengthening the resilience of communities impacted by extreme weather events. At the same time, he plans to pump $42 billion into the oil and gas sector by 2029.
Climate change is already affecting daily life in Ecuador. Widespread droughts last year hit the country’s many hydroelectric power plants and led to an energy deficit that forced Noboa to implement sweeping blackouts. They were only supposed to last a few weeks but ultimately continued through December and could return this year, causing blackouts and affecting businesses. For his second term, Noboa has proposed rainwater harvesting and storage projects.
Critics contend he’s prioritizing the economy over the long-term climate impacts of oil and gas. Last year, there was a national referendum to restart drilling in an oil block threatening Indigenous territory and Yasuní National Park. The country ultimately rejected the idea, forcing Noboa to create a committee to oversee its permanent closure. But then Noboa said he was considering a moratorium on the referendum results, citing the need to make up for the billions of dollars that could have been generated from the oil block.
Indigenous communities have spoken out about expanded drilling, mining, gas flaring and infrastructure projects on their territory. Noboa said he plans to combat pollution and deforestation and protect Ecuador’s ecosystems while including historically marginalized groups in the decision-making process. But activists are doubtful. They faced increasing threats and violence during his first term, most notably while combating mining projects. There has been a disproportionate use of public force, a criminalization of human rights defenders and a lack of enforcement against human rights abuses committed by mining companies, the U.N. special rapporteur on human rights defenders said in a recent report.
Increased aggression by state forces, as well as the rolling blackouts and spikes in organized crime, have at times led to calls for Noboa’s resignation. But right now, he’s leading his political opponent, Luisa González, by a small margin in most recent polls.
González is running with the Citizen Revolution Movement, a socialist and often populist political party established by controversial former president Rafael Correa, who introduced a long list of social reforms but got entangled in corruption scandals. González held several high-profile positions in Correa’s government, both in Ecuador and abroad, before serving a term in the assembly in 2021. She ran against Noboa in the last election, forcing a second runoff vote in which she lost by 4.8 million votes to 5.2 million.
This time around, her campaign has been much more outspoken about climate change than Noboa’s, albeit without including much detail on how she plans to fulfill her promises. She says she wants to accelerate the transition to clean energy and eradicate environmental inequalities that affect vulnerable communities. The government should guarantee Indigenous groups’ right to life and nature, her government plan says.
Despite the emphasis on clean energy, she has also recognized the importance of oil and gas and says it can be exploited responsibly. She supported the “no” vote during the Yasuní oil block referendum, arguing that exploration should continue in the area. She also said she respects the referendum results.
Ecuador already has a climate change adaption plan through 2027, but González wants to improve it with new climate change adaptation and mitigation policies, with an additional focus on the management of forests, combating desertification, reversing land erosion and stopping biodiversity loss. Part of that could involve creating a new fund for the conservation of biodiversity.
She’s also been vocal about strengthening government institutions like the Secretariat of Water and the Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition. In 2020, following a merger of the Ministry of Environment and Secretariat of Water, there were 398 layoffs, including 30 park rangers and specialists. González says she will not only reverse their unfair dismissal but also update conservation management plans to ensure protected areas are better looked after.
To win the election on Feb. 9, González has to win an absolute majority or get at least 40% of the vote and be at least 10% ahead of Noboa. If she or Noboa don’t meet that criteria, there will be a runoff vote in April. Similar to the 2023 election, observers believe it will take a second round for the country to decide.
Banner image: A highway blockade protesting the construction of a new maximum security prison. Image courtesy of the group Mujeres contra la cárcel.
See related from this reporter:
Why is violence against environmental defenders getting worse? Five things to know
FEEDBACK: Use this form to send a message to the author of this post. If you want to post a public comment, you can do that at the bottom of the page.
Credits
This story first appeared on Mongabay
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
You may republish this article, so long as you credit the authors and Mongabay, and do not change the text. Please include a link back to the original article.
