- Tensions in the Gulf that have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing fertilizer prices to rise. Despite the Kenyan government’s subsidy program, farmers have to deal with high fuel and other input costs.
- At least 26% of Kenya’s fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The government has, however, assured its citizens of adequate stocks of fertilizer, with plans to diversify imports.
- Meanwhile, farmers foresee reduced yields, despite government subsidy program, while commercial fertilizer prices continue to soar amid rising fuel costs.
- Kenya has to also deal with land degradation attributed to soil erosion, poor farming practices, overuse of synthetic fertilizers and climate change impacts such as floods.
Philip Kitur walks through a neat row of maize stalks, with budding leaves painting a picture of a bountiful harvest. The 71-year-old has a 41-acre parcel at Kipkeikei village in Trans-Nzoia County.
However, hidden behind Kitur’s smile is the fear of losing a significant yield if he does not access fertilizer. “The crop is due for top dressing, but I have not accessed urea, without which I may lose up to 30% of my harvest,” he told Mongabay.
Mutahi Kagwe, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Agriculture, says the country has adequate stocks of fertilizer, including 2 million bags for top-dressing. He says Kenya is working around finding alternative sources for the fertilizer to ensure food security in spite of global shocks triggered by the tension between Iran and USA.
“While we cannot preempt or predict how long the conflict in the Middle East will take, we have had conversations on sourcing Urea from Algeria and fertilizer from Morocco,” Kagwe told Mongabay in an interview done virtually.
Key food basket
Trans-Nzoia is one of Kenya’s food baskets, especially for maize, which is a staple food. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics’ 2025 National Agriculture Production Report, Trans-Nzoia accounted for 423,156 (10.5%) of the 4,028,320 tons of maize produced in 2024.
However, there has been immense strain in Kenya’s ability to sustain its maize production over the last 6 months. The Soil Atlas 2025 suggests that only 20% of Kenya’s land is arable. “Most of the agricultural land lies in dryland areas,” it says.
The report, produced by the Heinrich Boell Foundation after analyzing a wide range of peer-reviewed scientific research, Kenya Soil Survey, and Food and Agriculture Organization, indicates that at least 40% of Kenya’s lands are affected by degradation, with up to 26 tons per hectare lost to soil erosion every year. It highlights the effects of soil degradation on food security, and brings scientific evidence on soil health into public debate and policy making.
“In Kenya, 63% of arable land has acidic soils, and 32% of that has soils classified as strongly acidic. While some soils are naturally acidic, overuse of synthetic fertilizers has exacerbated the problem,” the report states.
But, for the moment, these practices are the scaffolding that supports the cultivation of up to 2.1 million hectares of maize, according to a 2024 IDEAS report, and allows small-scale farmers to grow enough food.
Kenya’s fertilizer subsidy program
This financial year, the Kenyan government allocated $139 million for eligible farmers to access fertilizer at half the price at local agro-vet shops that retail the commodity imported by global giants like Yara and ETG. In the 2025/2026 financial year the government allocated $61 million, which was significantly less than the $77 million budgeted for in 2024/2025.
Farmers register their names, the size and location of their farms, and the crops they’re planting on the Kenya Integrated Agriculture Management Information System (KIAMIS) that is accessible at their local chiefs’ offices. The KIAMIS sends them an SMS voucher with which to claim their subsidized inputs.
There are roughly 7.5 million smallholder farmers in Kenya, according to government statistics. As of November 2025, there were 7.2 million farmers on KIAMIS.
In March 2026, Trans-Nzoia farmers endured long queues at government depots in Kitale to purchase subsidised fertilizer.
Meanwhile, at the agro-vets, a 50kg bag of Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) or urea, used for top dressing, cost $46 in January, but the tension in the Gulf has sent the commercial price of fertilizer soaring. “In March, one bag had shot up to about KSh8,000 ($62),” Josephine Ndonji, a tomato farmer in Kisumu, told Mongabay.
“I had ordered 25 bags. I did not find all the bags in one place, so I had to call another supplier in Makueni. Apart from the high cost, I also had to pay an additional KSh2,000 ($15) to transport the fertilizer to Kisumu and then to my farm in Ahero.”
The anatomy of procurement
Kenya’s national fertilizer strategy operates through a framework of open-tender contracts and Government-to-Government purchases. Short-to-medium-term agreements to buy fixed amounts of fertilizer are reached with major private importers, international commodity traders, as well as domestic and international manufacturing firms.
World Integrated Trade Solution shows that Kenya imported fertilizers worth over $418 million at the onset of the subsidy program in 2022, navigating a highly volatile global market disrupted by the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the NFSP’s supply has come from Morocco, while Russia, operating through preexisting contracts and complex logistical workarounds, remained the second-largest source despite severe geopolitical hurdles and banking restrictions.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar supplied nitrogenous nutrients and urea, while several European countries and Egypt filled the remaining gaps to maintain the supply of fertilizer despite the unstable global market.
This diversified sourcing strategy kept Kenyan farms supplied during a year of unprecedented global agricultural shocks.
But with Saudi Arabia and Qatar as key suppliers of nitrogenous fertilizer under the NFSP, the conflict in the Gulf is likely to force Kenya to look beyond the region for supplies, which may increase the cost.
During his State of the Nation address in November 2025, President William Ruto indicated that 7 million bags (350,000 tonnes) of subsidized fertilizer had been distributed to boost the national maize production. The Kenya Economic Survey 2026 showed that maize yields increased from 44.8 million bags in 2024 to 45.8 million bags in 2025. The president had then committed to increase the quantity of fertilizer distributed in 2026.
“We plan to distribute 12.5 million bags (625,000 tonnes) across all the 1,450 wards, ensuring every farmer has access to affordable inputs,” he told Parliament.
But this was before the conflict in the Gulf and the unprecedented closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supplies of fertilizer.
The Persian Gulf serves as the world’s primary engine for nitrogenous and phosphate-based nutrients, with nearly a third of global seaborne urea passing through its waters. Data from UN Trade and Development shows that Kenya imports roughly 26% of its total fertilizer supply directly through the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping companies face skyrocketing war-risk insurance premiums, bunker fuel surcharges, and prolonged port delays. Some vessels reroute around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit schedules and multiplying freight costs.
For Kitur, these shocks are an immediate threat to his livelihood. “The government has subsidized fertilizer; the price has not gone up. But the price of diesel is so high. It is almost as if all the money I saved from buying subsidized fertilizer went into buying fuel for the tractors that plough,” Kitur told Mongabay.
Over the last four months, diesel prices in Kenya experienced unprecedented turbulence, driven by the same geopolitical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Year 2026 began with relative stability, with diesel retailing at around KSh165.63 ($1.28) in February, and KSh206.84 ($1.60) by April. In mid-May, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announced a record high of KSh242.92 ($1.88) per litre in Nairobi.
However, following intensive public transport stakeholder petitions and protests over the high cost of living, EPRA enacted an emergency mid-month recalculation, shaving off Sh10.06 ($0.078) to settle at KSh232.86 ($1.80). A liter of diesel now costs KSh222.86.
In 2024, through mid-2025, Kenya had initial purchase floors set at KSh3,500 ($27.03). However, in 2026, the NCPB announced that it would implement the KSh4,000 ($30.89) per 90kg bag floor price for maize, to address a tightening domestic market and protect farmers still holding grain reserves. This, however, drew widespread criticism, as some farmers still favoured private maize millers who purchase a 90kg bag of maize at between KSh4,200 ($32.43) and KSh4,400 ($33.98).
Way forward
The government is optimistic that it will cushion farmers from global shocks, and protect its food sovereignty and security. But even with the pivot to new suppliers, Kenya is at crossroads. Until self-reliance is achieved, it remains bound to international shocks, where a conflict in a distant shipping lane can directly dictate the price of food locally.
Banner image: Peter Kitur, a 72-year-old farmer in Trans-Nzoia, Kenya, who buys the government subsidized fertilizer. Photo by Achieng’ Otieino for Mongabay.
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Cite this article
Achieng’ Otieno (2026). Running on empty: How the gulf war is threatening Kenya’s food security. Mongabay Conservation news. DOI: https://doi.org/10.66709/news-322457
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