One third of the world’s coral reefs may be able to withstand the impacts of climate change by 2050, according to a study conducted by the conservation NGO Wildlife Conservation Society and researchers from Macquarie University in Australia. The findings of the study, yet to be peer-reviewed, were presented on June 16 during the Our Ocean Conference held in Mombasa, Kenya.
“This study proves that there is hope,” Joseph Maina, an associate professor at Macquarie University who contributed to the study, told Mongabay during a phone interview.
For the study, Maina and colleagues combined more than 45,000 field observations of coral reefs from 1960-2025, with 42 different environmental and human-pressure factors, such as temperature, heat stress, cyclones, fishing pressure and connectivity. They used this data to train an artificial intelligence model to predict the future of coral reefs by 2050, in a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions stay high.
The results were striking. The program mapped 552,969 square kilometers (213,503 square miles) of coral reef extent. Of this, one-third, or approximately 165,922 km2 (64,063 mi2) of the reefs could be climate-resilient; that is, they could maintain healthy coral communities in the face of climate change impacts. These coral reefs are spread across 71 countries, but more than a half occur in five countries: The Bahamas, Cuba, Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.
According to Maina, some African countries such as Kenya, Mozambique and Tanzania also host a significant proportion of reefs that appear resilient to climate change.
However, Maina said that the lack of baseline data from certain regions to provide the model was a limitation of the study.
“We didn’t have sufficient baseline data from West Africa so the AI could not perform any prediction unfortunately for that region,” Maina said.
Coral reefs are a critically important ecosystem. They provide habitat or food for an estimated 25% of all marine species. Their disappearance would, therefore, have dramatic consequences not only for marine biodiversity but also for human communities.
“Communities in Africa, particularly in the coastal areas are highly dependent on coastal and marine areas, particularly coral reefs, because they go out to fish to put the food on the table. They depend on it for food security,” Maina said. “For that reason, countries need to think about how they can use our study not only to meet commitments but also to maintain the ecosystem services that support their communities.”
Coral reefs face numerous threats, including climate change, overfishing, pollution and habitat destruction. Marine heatwaves in 2023 and 2024 triggered what scientists describe as one of the “most extensive and intense” coral bleaching events ever recorded. Coral reefs from African countries bordering the Indian Ocean, such as Mauritius and Kenya, are still recovering from its impacts.
Banner image: Research expedition to Tanzania’s Latham Island to study its coral reefs. Image by Darryl MacDonald © WCS.
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