Nepal announces its snow leopard population after first-of-its-kind assessment

KATHMANDU — Following decades of speculation, skepticism and lack of consensus, Nepal’s government has announced the country’s first-ever consolidated national estimate of snow leopards (Panther uncia): 397 individuals.

The figure, which translates to 1.56 individuals per 100 square kilometers (38.6 square miles), was reported by an expert committee following months of work which involved aggregating results from multiple studies carried out in different parts of the country adopting different methods across various periods of time.

“This national estimate is a historic step in Nepal’s conservation journey,” said Ramchandra Kandel, director-general at the Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation (DNPWC). It not only provides us with a clearer picture of snow leopard populations but also informs future conservation strategies,” he added.

This estimate and its report are the Himalayan country’s contribution to the Population Assessment of the World’s Snow Leopards (PAWS), an initiative launched under the Global Snow Leopard and Ecosystem Protection Program (GSLEP) in 2019 to support the 12 range countries to produce a robust estimate of the cat’s population status.

The result, based on data on snow leopard distribution and population density collected between 2015 and 2024, also has global implications. “Although Nepal has the second smallest snow leopard habitat of only around 2% of the global land area considered suitable for snow leopards, it is home to nearly 10%, the fourth largest population,” said Ghana Shyam Gurung, Nepal representative of WWF.

Unlike tigers (Panthera tigris), the other big cat found in the country that are regularly monitored and counted using extensive camera traps, snow leopards roam vast high-altitude rugged landscapes crisscrossing political boundaries. These challenges mean that estimates must be made using the best available data and science.

In the context of Nepal, this has been the approach since the pioneering telemetry work by researcher Rodney Jackson and his team in the late 1980s and early ’90s. They first estimated the snow leopard population in the country to be around 150–300 in 1979 and later revised the number up to 350–500 individuals based on a computerized habitat suitability model.

In 2009, researchers from WWF and DNPWC came up with a new estimate of 301–400 based on a model describing the relationship between sign (scrape marks) encounter rates, snow leopard numbers assessed through genetic analysis, and habitat suitability assessment in the Nepal Himalayas.

The figure was also acknowledged by the government’s inaugural Snow Leopard Action Plan (2005-15), revised in 2012. A 2013 estimate by GSLEP, however, suggested the number to be around 300–500. But as consolidated nation-wide assessment based on methods recognized by GSLEP was yet to be conducted, various studies indicated that the number could have been overestimated.

“Instead of a single large survey, we had to synthesize findings from camera traps, genetic analysis and habitat models, each done in different regions and years,” said Kamal Thapa, a snow leopard researcher on the government-appointed committee.

This included studies in the eastern, central and western habitats of the vulnerable species in Nepal ranging from Humla in the west, the Annapurnas in the centre and Kanchenjunga in the east. They were conducted by individual researchers and officials from the government, the National Trust for Nature Conservation (NTNC), WWF, Thirdpole Conservancy, The Himalayan Wolves Project, Tribhuvan University, Nepal Engineering College and ZSL.

“Aggregating these findings wasn’t easy,” said Thapa. “We had to find ways to make camera-trap data comparable with DNA-based scat analysis. That’s where the PAWS guidelines came in.”

The PAWS framework demands statistically robust tools like spatial capture-recapture models and recommends surveys covering at least 500 km² (193 mi²). While a handful of Nepal’s snow leopard habitats, especially in western and central regions, meet this threshold, others remain under-studied.

“We built a model that allowed us the flexibility to use both the camera trap data as well as the genetics data,” said wildlife biologist Shashank Poudel from WWF, adding that the committee found that the end parameters were statistically significant to report.

Poudel said the current estimate is based on data from more than 43% of Nepal’s potential snow leopard habitat with the representation of both protected areas and those outside of protected areas. “That gives us some confidence that the number is representative,” said Poudel, who emphasized that the population as well as density appears to increase along an east-west gradient in the country with most individuals concentrated in the Annapurna range and westward of it.

The western habitat, especially beyond the Annapurnas, is home to the trans-Himalayan region — land to the north of the Himalayan range — considered a prime habitat for snow leopards and their prey, the blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur).

That said, researchers are cautious not to treat 397 as a final count. Poudel said that the committee came up with a range of 331–476 as a more accurate measure. “But, also within the range, the maximum likelihood revolves around 397,” he said.

“This number is grounded in the best available science,” said researcher Rinzin Phunsok Lama from Third Pole Conservancy. “But it’s still an educated guess. Snow leopards are too elusive, their landscapes too vast, and our tools too limited for full certainty.”

With this milestone, Nepal turns a corner in snow leopard conservation, but gaps remain, said wildlife biologist Kanchan Thapa from WWF. Areas such as Dhorpatan, Dhaulagiri and Api-Nampa still lack detailed population data.

Future efforts may involve more expansive surveys, potentially nation-wide if logistical and financial support can be secured, said Gurung.

Meanwhile, the new estimate has been submitted to PAWS for peer review, a step conservationists say will add credibility and encourage further refinement. The report will also be made public soon.

The consolidated estimate comes a few months after Nepal’s government rolled out its new $14.24 million snow leopard conservation plan for 2024-30, promising to come up with a national population figure under PAWS guidelines.

Banner image: A snow leopard photographed in Nepal. Image courtesy of WWF Nepal.

As Nepal counts its snow leopards, even the best estimate is still a guess

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Abhaya Raj Joshi Editor

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