The possible peace deal to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz may bring immediate relief to global markets, oil prices and inflation expectations, but South African organisations should not mistake a pause in hostilities for a return to normal risk conditions, the Institute of Risk Management South Africa (IRMSA) has warned.
IRMSA CEO Yvonne Mothibi says the reported breakthrough is significant because it reduces the immediate probability of a deeper energy shock, renewed oil price spikes and further disruption to global shipping routes. However, she says the conflict has exposed how quickly external geopolitical events can transmit into South African boardrooms, budgets and balance sheets.
“This is a welcome development, but it is not a signal for complacency,” says Mothibi. “For South Africa, the Iran conflict has been a live stress test of our exposure to global energy markets, imported inflation, logistics vulnerability, currency volatility and fragile consumer confidence. A peace deal may ease pressure, but it does not remove the underlying risk.”
She says South African businesses remain vulnerable because the country is a net importer of refined fuel, heavily exposed to global oil pricing, and already operating in an environment of weak growth, infrastructure constraints and pressure on household spending.
“When oil prices rise, the impact is not abstract. It moves through fuel prices, transport costs, food inflation, wage demands, working capital and margins. Even when prices fall, the recovery is uneven. Risk leaders need to understand those second and third-round effects.”
IRMSA says several uncertainties remain, including whether the deal will hold, how quickly shipping through Hormuz normalises, the future of sanctions, unresolved nuclear issues, regional proxy tensions, insurance costs, and the possibility of renewed cyber or supply-chain disruption.
Mothibi says organisations should now update their risk registers and scenario planning rather than simply reversing assumptions made during the crisis: “The mistake would be to treat this as a single geopolitical event that has now passed. The better response is to ask what the crisis revealed about organisational resilience. Do we understand our fuel exposure? Do we know which suppliers are vulnerable to shipping disruption? Have we stress-tested our cash flows against a weaker rand, higher oil, delayed imports or sudden consumer retrenchment?”
IRMSA recommends that boards and executive teams urgently review geopolitical risk, business continuity plans, supplier concentration, crisis communication, treasury hedging, insurance coverage, compliance exposure and cyber readiness.
Mothibi says risk management must now become more dynamic: “The old approach of reviewing risk quarterly or annually is no longer enough. Risk strategies must be updated in real time, linked to credible scenarios and embedded in decision-making. The organisations that perform best through uncertainty will be those that do not wait for certainty before acting.
“Peace, if achieved, is good news. But resilience cannot depend on peace elsewhere. South African organisations need risk strategies that are robust enough for a world in which shocks are more frequent, more connected and more cost.”
