More than two years into Sudan’s devastating civil war, the conflict has entered a new phase with shifting military dynamics, though violence continues to claim lives and displace millions. Estimates of the death toll range from 60,000 to 150,000, making it one of the deadliest wars in the world today.
Battlefield Shifts: SAF Gains Ground, RSF Adapts
For much of the conflict, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) held the upper hand, particularly in the capital region of Khartoum, where they besieged military bases early on. However, the tide began to turn in September 2024 when the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched a major ground offensive, retaking Khartoum by March 2025.
The SAF’s resurgence has been fueled by a large-scale recruitment campaign and new alliances with armed groups across the country. Despite these gains, the RSF remains a formidable force, now utilizing drones to strike SAF positions in previously secure areas, including Port Sudan.
Civilian Suffering Persists, Though Some Return Home
Civilians have borne the brunt of the war, with Sudan consistently ranking as the deadliest country in Africa for non-combatants since the conflict began. The RSF has been responsible for roughly two-thirds of all documented attacks on civilians, though both sides have been accused of targeting non-combatants.
In a rare glimmer of relief, 2025 has seen a decline in civilian fatalities compared to the previous year, attributed to the SAF’s recapture of key areas like Khartoum and Al-Jazirah, where fighting has subsided. Some displaced families have even begun returning to relatively calmer zones.
No End in Sight
Despite these shifts, experts warn that the war is far from over. Fighting has expanded into new regions, and neither side appears capable of a decisive victory. With no peace talks in sight, Sudan’s humanitarian catastrophe—marked by mass displacement, famine risks, and widespread atrocities—continues unabated.
As the conflict evolves, international attention remains critical to addressing both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term stability in a nation torn apart by war.
