PRETORIA, GAUTENG — In a recent address shedding light on South Africa migration statistics, Statistician-General Risenga Maluleke clarified that internal migration from Limpopo remains the primary driver of Gauteng’s population growth, rather than an influx of foreign nationals.
Speaking during a parliamentary migration symposium that coincided with Statistics South Africa’s (Stats SA) 30-year milestone of democratic census-taking, Maluleke provided a comprehensive, data-driven breakdown of the country’s demographic shifts. His insights aimed to correct widespread misinformation regarding both internal and international migration trends reshaping the nation.
Internal vs. International Migration
Addressing the core drivers of population growth, Maluleke explained that demographic changes are fueled by fertility rates, increased life expectancy, and migration. While international migration is a factor, it remains within global standards.
Historically, the foreign-born population in South Africa was 2.67% in the 1996 census, rose to roughly 3% in 2001, peaked at nearly 5% in 2011, and settled at approximately 3.9% (or 4%) in the 2022 census. This aligns with the global average, where migrant populations typically make up about 4% of a nation’s total.
When analyzing intra-national movements, Maluleke highlighted a critical misconception regarding Gauteng. While 50% of international migrants entering South Africa choose Gauteng as their destination, the absolute largest contributor to the province’s overall population growth is actually internal migrants from Limpopo.
Similarly, in the Western Cape, population growth is driven by an equal proportion of internal migrants from the Eastern Cape and international migrants. Maluleke also noted that fertility rates play a massive role, with Limpopo and the Eastern Cape recording the highest fertility rates—far above the national average—while the Western Cape and other provinces sit below the national average.
Breakdown of Foreign-Born Residents
According to the 2022 census, there are 2.4 million people living in South Africa who were born outside the country. Maluleke provided a detailed geographic breakdown of this demographic:
- Zimbabwe: Accounts for 48.3% of the foreign-born population (approximately 1 million people).
- Mozambique: Approximately 400,000 residents.
- United Kingdom: Around 277,000 residents.
- Malawi: 198,000 residents.
The top ten countries of origin are heavily dominated by Southern African Development Community (SADC) nations, including Lesotho, Botswana, Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Nigeria. Maluleke noted that migrants from further afield, such as Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Somalia, make up much smaller numbers, generally ranging between 15,000 and 20,000 individuals.
He also referenced the 2022/2023 Income and Expenditure Survey, a sample survey that indicated about 3.5 million foreign-born individuals, a slightly higher figure expected from sample-based extrapolations compared to the full census.
The Stance on Documentation and Law Enforcement
During the interview—which was briefly interrupted by live broadcast footage of an immigration-related arrest in the Free State, underscoring the real-time public tension surrounding the topic—questions arose regarding the legal status of these migrants.
Maluleke firmly stated that Stats SA does not track or ask whether migrants are documented or undocumented. He emphasized that official statistics are strictly utilized for long-term planning and service delivery, not for law enforcement.
“When one switches on a light on the wall, it doesn’t first ask if they are here documented or undocumented. It’s about services,” Maluleke explained. “When they want to drink water, water doesn’t ask them that question.”
He warned that attempting to track legal status would result in undocumented individuals hiding from enumerators, ultimately leading to inaccurate data that would misinform long-term national planning for years to come.
Combating Misinformation with Evidence
Concluding his address, the Statistician-General stressed the vital importance of evidence-based discussions. He cautioned that many figures circulating in the public domain regarding migration are “blown out of proportion” and lack factual backing.
Maluleke reiterated that Stats SA’s data—including the annual mid-year population estimates, quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and labor force surveys, and the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI)—is designed to help government, business leaders, and policymakers ensure economic sustainability, improve service delivery, and keep the cost of goods affordable for all residents.
He urged the public and elected officials to rely on verified, ground-collected evidence rather than exaggerated claims when shaping the future of South Africa’s immigration and social cohesion policies.
