PRETORIA, South Africa — The South African security cluster warns against violence and intimidation ahead of planned anti-illegal immigration protests scheduled for June 30. Acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia confirmed that the military is on standby to assist law enforcement, emphasizing that while peaceful demonstrations are a protected right, criminality and vigilantism will not be tolerated.
Government Stance and Preparedness
During a recent briefing, the security cluster—alongside provincial ministers responsible for public order, the Defence Minister, and senior police chiefs—outlined the state’s readiness for the upcoming demonstrations. Acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia assured the public that the date would pass peacefully and that the sun would set on a normal day in South Africa. He noted that the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is fully prepared to support police operations should the situation deteriorate.
Expert Analysis on Crowd Management
Security expert Dr. Chris de Kock, providing analysis on the security chiefs’ statements, expressed confidence in the state’s preparedness, noting it is a significant improvement from the unpreparedness seen during the July 2021 riots in KwaZulu-Natal and parts of Gauteng. However, Dr. de Kock cautioned that deploying “boots on the ground” is not a standalone solution.
He emphasized the critical need for public order policing units to properly read crowds, taking into account psychological factors such as facelessness, de-individualization, and high levels of group cohesion. These factors, he explained, can cause crowds to view police as enemies. Dr. de Kock stressed that experienced units must know exactly when to escalate their response, starting with photography and documentation before moving to tear gas or rubber bullets if necessary.
Historical Lessons from 2008, 2012, and 2021
Drawing on historical precedents, Dr. de Kock compared the current security apparatus to the 2008 unrest, recalling a time when police and defense forces were highly intact and capable of swiftly stopping violent events. He questioned whether that same institutional capacity remains today.
When addressing the August 2012 Marikana massacre, where the use of traditional weapons was a focal point, Dr. de Kock identified the core issue as a failure of command and control. He criticized top-level interference from police structures in Pretoria—clarifying that this was not a direct reference to current President Cyril Ramaphosa, but rather to centralized command decisions that dictated when standoffs should end. He argued that on-the-ground units should have been allowed to read the crowd and permit peaceful dispersals.
Regarding the 2021 riots, Dr. de Kock distinguished those events from standard protest marches. He described the 2021 unrest as orchestrated looting and arson, exacerbated by a severe lack of police capacity and equipment, to the point where private security companies had to transport ammunition to the police.
Intelligence Capacity and Leadership Accountability
Concerns were also raised regarding the state’s intelligence capabilities, particularly following the recent stayed arrests of the head of intelligence, Dumisani Khumalo, and another senior officer, Nosipho Madondo—a fact confirmed by the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA).
Dr. de Kock expressed ongoing worry about the factionalization and political influence within intelligence structures, issues that were heavily scrutinized during the Madlanga Commission and subsequent ad hoc committee proceedings. Despite these concerns, he noted that intelligence gathering is currently better than in 2021, as the government is at least aware of the planned June 30 marches and has identified the leaders involved. He recommended that authorities negotiate with these leaders, register the crowds, and ensure adequate marshals are present to remove unruly or intoxicated individuals.
Financial Costs and the Responsibility of March Organizers
Acting Minister Cachalia revealed that R600 million has been allocated for the security plan surrounding the June 30 protests, a figure that was not originally budgeted for. Dr. de Kock pointed out the stark contrast between this unbudgeted security expenditure and the lack of accountability for the 2021 riots, which resulted in over 400 deaths and an estimated R50 billion in economic damage to the country.
Dr. de Kock emphasized that no individuals have been jailed for the 2021 destruction and argued that march organizers must take full legal and moral responsibility. He stated that organizers are required to coordinate with the police service, the judiciary, and local government, and must deploy sufficient marshals to identify and hand over criminals to law enforcement. Concluding his analysis, Dr. de Kock remarked that the R600 million currently being spent on securing the protests could have been utilized to repatriate undocumented foreigners.
