China’s GDP growth rate is expected to touch 8.8 percent in 2021, thanks to the robust recovery momentum seen in major economic sectors, global consultancy KPMG said in a report.
With per capita disposable income of Chinese people returning to the positive territory during the third quarter of the year, consumption has also been staging a rebound. Consumer optimism and the normalization of the COVID-19 epidemic control and prevention measures will further unlock the offline shopping potential in the subsequent months. The continued turnaround in consumption and service sectors will be the major economic driver next year, said Kang Yong, chief economist at KPMG China.
As outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) proposals, manufacturing, especially the high-end manufacturing sector, will become a major driving force of China’s long-term economic growth. KPMG expects the development of high-tech manufacturing and industrial upgrades to stimulate investment over the next 12 months. As privately owned enterprises account for 90 percent of China’s manufacturing sector, stronger investment data on manufacturing will reflect the improvement of the private sector, said Kang.
Some of the global orders transferred to China this year, thanks to the country’s earlier recovery from the pandemic, have fueled the surge in exports, said Kang. Since the demand gap still exists in some overseas markets due to the pandemic, China’s export value will remain at a relatively high level next year, he said.
Meanwhile, KPMG also foresees continued financial opening-up in 2021, which will further facilitate overseas investment in renminbi-denominated financial assets. Therefore, the renminbi exchange rate will likely remain stable next year, promising some room for appreciation. But companies must also keep an eye on the changes in monetary and fiscal policies, KPMG said.
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