If you don’t have much experience with sports betting, it is likely that you will come across dozens of articles claiming that you can become a rich man quickly, only if you follow a specific model. You shouldn’t be naive. There are no methods that will guarantee that you will make money. It doesn’t mean that it’s a better idea to just place bets randomly without developing any system. A good system will at least increase your chances of winning. In a second, you’ll learn about 2 betting systems that you should experiment with. Let’s go!
Kelly Criterion
Most of the models that you will encounter will try to tell you where you should place your bets – on what games, which bookmakers to choose, and so on. You could try your luck with a real-life bookmaker, or go online instead, f.e. at SportsBet, but Kelly Criterion isn’t about where you should place your bets. Instead, it shows you how much of all your funds you should use on particular bets. All sports betting enthusiasts have to walk the line between losing all of their savings by placing too risky bets, and being too conservative when it comes to the bets that theoretically should bring your profit.
That’s what a Kelly Criterion is exactly for: it calculates how much money you should bet, depending on the perceived odds.
(BP – Q) / B
B = the decimal odds -1
P = the probability of a win
Q = the probability of a loss
Okay, but how do you calculate the exact probability of either win or loss? That’s the hard part. You could collect the data about the results of games in previous seasons, and on this basis, calculate how likely it is that a particular team will win, and if it will, what will be the result.
Unfortunately, it isn’t that easy. Players come, and players go, which means that the performance of the team x could be much different from the performance of the team x 2 years ago. Even if you analyze a lot of data, being a sports fan would definitely be an advantage. The A.I. is getting better and better at accurately analyzing large chunks of data, though many ardent fans would argue that A.I. just doesn’t have the necessary intuition. Still, you will need to analyze a lot of data, either manually or with the help of a program.
If theoretically, you were able to be exact in your calculations, then you should make money, at least in the long term. The problem is, there are so many factors involved that it might be more challenging than you could imagine. Still, if you put some effort into calculating the odds, you will have lower chances of losing money than with other models, though your wins won’t be that high either. On top of that, if patience is not one of your virtues, you might quickly get angry at the model that, even if the odds are favorable, advises you to bet such small amounts.
Arbitrage
Another system of sports betting is called arbitrage. There isn’t so much math involved in this one, though likewise, you’ll have to put some serious effort if you want to achieve success with this one. Basically, you’ll have to check and compare the odds of matches of many bookmakers. Sometimes a situation occurs that if you bet money on a team X that is playing with a team Y at bookmaker #1, and on a team Y at bookmaker #2, you’ll be sure to win at least a small amount of money, usually several percent. You also need to remember that how much you bet should depend on the odds, meaning, you should bet more on a team that is more likely to win, proportionately to the odds.
Such a situation can happen for a number of reasons. Not every bookmaker uses the same algorithm, which means that the odds will vary. Other factors, like a crucial member of a team getting injured, might influence the odds, and not all the bookmakers will adjust their model at the same time.
Okay, so if you dedicate enough time to find such situations, are you guaranteed to make money? Unfortunately, this is not the case. You will have to spend quite a lot of money to manage all the paid accounts on different bookmaker websites. At the same time, it is 2020 already, which means that it doesn’t take hours for the programs to adjust the models. You’ll have to place bets quickly before the news about f.e. injury becomes known to the public. If such a high-speed lifestyle suits you, then this system will be perfect for you.
