Despite suffering defeat at the hands of Ireland, the Springboks remain well placed to advance from their World Cup pool thanks to back-to-back victories over Scotland and Romania.
But, with the wind knocked out of their sails somewhat and a likely 2nd-place finish in their pool, do South Africa still stand a chance of retaining the Webb Ellis Cup? Let’s take a detailed look at their latest results and upcoming fixtures and analyse their chances.
South Africa’s performances so far
South Africa entered the Rugby World Cup as third favourites for the tournament, behind France and New Zealand. However, an opening day 18-3 victory over Scotland caused many pundits to proclaim that the Springboks could arguably be favourites, particularly after France suffered from a couple of key injuries and the All Blacks stuttered against an undermanned French side.
Following this victory, the Springboks routed Romania 76-0 and the clamour grew further. However, their first real test of the tournament came this past weekend when they were defeated by Ireland 13-8.
Coming off the back of one of their most successful Six Nations tournaments ever, they looked strong and determined to take that success into the RWC. But, although many pundits saw this as a shock defeat, Ireland remain ranked as the number one side in the world. Plus, the Springboks missed a number of relatively straightforward kicks that would have taken them to victory. So, South Africa have reason to believe that if the two sides meet again later in the tournament, then they can come out on top.
South Africa’s probable run to the final
South Africa’s remaining pool-stage game will take place against Tonga on Sunday October 1st. They’ll be expected to win this clash comfortably and, if they do, they’ll qualify for the quarter-final stage.
Here, they’ll likely face the winner of Pool A, which should be France. Although this is a tough game on paper, France are suffering from several injuries and it appears unlikely that their talismanic captain, Antoine Dupont, will be unable to play. As a result, South Africa will probably enter the game as favourites.
Should they emerge victorious, South Africa will likely face either England or Fiji in the semi-final. Here, they will once again be seen as big favourites, as long as form and injuries don’t turn against them.
This means that they stand a good chance of making the final, where they will mostly likely encounter either the All Blacks or Ireland again. Either of these games will be a tossup, but on the day South Africa will hope that their scrummaging power can overpower either opposition pack, much like they did when they defeated England in the 2019 final.
The verdict: can the Springboks win the Rugby World Cup?
Although defeat against Ireland has dampened expectations somewhat, the Springboks still have a great chance of retaining their Rugby World Cup crown.
However, if they are to get past top teams like France, the All Blacks and Ireland (again), their goal kicking must improve. If the team continues to lack the ruthless edge they showed in the first matchup against Ireland, then history could easily repeat itself. Although there’s no doubt South Africa are the best scrummaging side in the world, the penalties they’ll gain are useless if they cannot convert them.
That said, if either Manie Libbok or Faf de Klerk can find their form with the boot, they’ll be very difficult to defeat over 80 minutes. Particularly as defeat against Ireland will likely now spur them on for the rest of the tournament.